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What Is Wrong With $VIX? - Part 2 (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Other bear markets have shown similar behavior: realized volatility increases by a relatively small amount, and $VIX therefore does not accelerate to extreme highs. Often, late in the bear market – near its bottom – is when we see a sharper increase in volatility.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/14/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The rally that began in mid-March is persisting. Market internals remain positive, and that is finally having enough of an effect on $SPX (and the market psyche) to push prices higher in a relatively slow manner. Even so, there is formidable overhead resistance at 4200 and 4300, so the $SPX chart will not be outright bullish until those levels are exceeded (in my opinion).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/6/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The fact that $SPX broke over the downtrend line that had existed for most of February and March doesn't necessarily mean that the $SPX chart is outright bullish, though, for there is formidable resistance at both 4200 and 4300. It's just not a bearish chart right now. Several indicators are overbought at this time, and some of them might be issuing sell signals soon. In addition, $SPX has advanced above its +3å "modified Bollinger Band."

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/31/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A rather large dichotomy is emerging in this market: the chart of $SPX remains bearish, while most everything else is taking on a bullish slant. This has happened before, and usually the negativity of $SPX wins out. However, each market cycle is different to some extent, so we will continue to watch these rather interesting developments.

What Is Wrong With $VIX? (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

One of the questions that traders – both retail and professional – have been asking all throughout the bear market that began in January 2022 is “What Is Wrong With $VIX?” Everyone remembers the $VIX explosions during the crisis events over the years, but there is little memory of $VIX seemingly ignoring a bear market decline such as the 25% that has occurred in this bear market. In reality, there have been similar declines with a non-responsive $VIX before, but it is just not something that stands out in one’s memory like the upward spikes do. In this paper, we’ll look at some of those past occurrences and see if we can discern if there is indeed anything wrong with $VIX or not.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/24/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

As for the $SPX chart, it once again shows a lower high and lower low, since that February top. Moreover, the latest rally attempt, which began on March 13th, appears to merely be an oversold rally. It sprang from several rather severe oversold conditions, and it has now run into trouble at or just above the declining 20-day Moving Average a "classic" oversold rally.