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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/6/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

We are well into the new year of trading, and the seasonally bullish period surrounding year-end has passed. The Santa Claus Rally produced a small gain for $SPX of 30 points less than its historical average of a 1.1% gain, but a gain nevertheless. If it had been a loss, that would have been another negative for the stock market.

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 1/3/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Happy New Year! Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market onJanuary 3, 2023.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/30/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This is supposed to be a positive time of the year for the stock market -- the so-called "Santa Claus Rally" period. Typically, the market advances about 1% during the last five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. But If this seasonal period ends with a loss, that is generally negative for the broad stock market. As the creator of this system, Yale Hirsch, said: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Classic!

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/23/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to struggle after $SPX broke down through the 3900 support level a week ago. The end of the trading year typically brings with it a short-term rally, classified as the "Santa Claus Rally" by the late Yale Hirsch.

The Most Unusual $VIX “Spike Peak” Buy Signal Ever? (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX) gets a lot of attention from both technical analysts and the media. That was the case this week, as $VIX spiked higher – rising to 25.84 intraday on December 13th, before reversing sharply downward after the CPI number was released. It closed that day at 22.55, more than 3.00 points below its high, and that generated a $VIX “spike peak” buy signal, by our definition.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/16/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

When $SPX rallied strongly after December CPI figures were released this past Tuesday (December 13th), it ran out of gas almost exactly at 4100 -- the resistance level from early December, and right about in line with the downtrend of this bear market. Sellers emerged at that point and not only thwarted the rally but pushed $SPX down so hard that it broke major support at 3900. The latter move came after the FOMC not only raised rates (again) but also made some hawkish statements about continuing to raise rates.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/9/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks ran into some severe resistance at the end of last week, when the rally that began in early October ran into the downtrend line of this bear market. Also, the rally peaked out after briefly climbing above the still-declining 200-day Moving Average of $SPX. So far, the bears have won the battle, and there was some rather heavy selling in the early part of this week. This has put the bulls on notice: hold the line at support at 3900, or expect another bad December.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/2/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market continues the rally that began in early October. Yes, there have been some severe down days mixed in, but $SPX has generally been overcoming one resistance level after another and closing gaps left on the way down (most recently, the island reversal gaps from early September have been filled). This morning's strong job report has knocked the market down 50+ $SPX points, but that is not necessarily a rally killer. The most recent breakout above resistance at 4030 led $SPX to reach not only the downtrending 200-day Moving Average, but the downtrend line for this bear market. Both are near 4100. A strong move above 4100 would break that downtrend line, but it would not necessarily be the end of the bear market. The next resistance level above that is the August highs at 4325.

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