Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 6, 2025.
$SPX has risen for eight days in a row and is off to a positive start today, which would make it nine. This type of action has been accompanied by buy signals from breadth, equity-only put-call ratios, and MVB -- not to mention short-term buy signals such as "$VIX crossover" and "oscillator differential." Still, as impressive as all that is, the $SPX chart is still bearish because it's still in a potential downtrend.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 28, 2025.
It really feels like the market is rallying strongly, and perhaps the bottom is in. But the evidence is not clear on that. Even though $SPX has rallied nearly 400 points from Monday's lows, this is still a bearish $SPX chart. First of all, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Second, $SPX has not overcome resistance in the 5500 area. Even if it were to rally above 5500 somewhat (perhaps getting nearer to the now-declining 200-day Moving Average) and then turn back down, that would still leave a pattern of lower highs on the chart albeit with a less steep slope on the downtrend line. In my opinion, only a close above 5800 would remove the negativity from this chart.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 21, 2025.
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Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 31, 2025.
The current rally in $SPX is behaving very much likely a typical oversold rally and not something stronger. $SPX rallied up to its declining 20-day Moving Average, and overshot it slightly. Then it backed off again. That is classic action for an oversold rally. In this particular case, $SPX also ran into its 200-day Moving Average, at the same level. The highs of this week are just below 5800, so that is resistance.
