After making new all-time highs on August 14th, $SPX has struggled a bit. There is a very minor downtrend line on the chart right now, after a series of negative days accompanied in general by terrible breadth. That pullback seems to have culminated with a retest of the 7600-7620 support level this past Tuesday, September 1st. That support level is marked with a thick red horizontal line on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. If it gives way, a much more negative picture will emerge, but so far support has held.
Traders were a bit leery of some potentially volatile events this week, but so far they have not proven to be troublesome. The NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings were positive, and the stock rose. That was a relief to the market. Also, Fed Chair Warsh made the Keynote Address at the Jackson Hole Monetary conference this morning. The market's reaction is muted.
A week ago, it seemed that $SPX had a renewed upside momentum, as it was making new all- time highs and internal indicators were improving. But there has been no follow-through this week, and it seems that bullish momentum has been lost. The "culprit" seems to be an increase in T-Bond rates, although that hasn't mattered much before.
After the monster rally of 400 points in just a few days in early August, $SPX took a few days to consolidate. Now it is making new all-time highs once again. There should be some support in that consolidation area (7700-7800), with stronger support at the old highs (7620). There is also a gap at the 7600 level which would act as support as well.
A little more than a week ago, the FOMC meeting concluded (on July 29th), and traders were not happy. They sold the market before and after the meeting, closing $SPX that day at 7316. But then a series of events both real and psychological took place that released a buying panic.
Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July.
