The oversold rally that was underway last week ran out of steam as soon as it ran into the declining 20-day moving average of $SPX. There is now resistance at 2650. The 2175-2190 level still qualifies as support, and it has not been tested at all.
The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, despite the fact that they have curled up ovhe past few days. These buy signals would be canceled if the ratios rise to new highs.
This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 18, No. 4-5 on March 5, 2009.
I’m a numbers guy – degrees in math and all that – so I get a lot out of looking at charts, tables, and so forth that show past market behavior. That also makes me a technician. But it always amazes me how people can look at the same set of data and come away with very different conclusions.
We are currently, in March 2020, in one of the three most volatile markets in history. In terms of absolute price change, it has no peers. In terms of percentage price change, 1929, 1931-1933, and 1987 are all in the mix (but not 2008, which has been surpassed). If we looked back even farther, there would be other markets which were volatile, too (1907, for example), but in this paper we are not looking back past 1928.
Stocks exploded out of a massive oversold condition this week and put together the best 3-day rally since....1931. That sounds a bit ominous, doesn't it? 1931 and 1932 were two of the worst stock market years on record. In any case, the bulls are enjoying the rally, and it has generated some buy signals from our indicators.
This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 18, No. 15 on August 7, 2009.
It is generally accepted that volatility decreases in a bullish market phase and increases during a bearish one. Even on a daily basis, CBOE statistics show that 75% of the time, if $SPX moves one way, $VIX moves the other. When longer periods are considered, the percentage changes (see page two for exact statistics). Yet, recently $VIX has begun to increase even while $SPX is blowing out to the upside. This is unusual action, and we’ll try to examine it in this article.
Stocks broke below the December 2018 lows this week, which was a support area that many had expected to hold. This market has blown through every supposed support area there was. The decline held at 2280. The 2280 level was last seen in February 2017. So in a matter of three weeks, the market has wiped out three years worth of gains.
Bear markets move fast, but this is one of the fastest of them all -- on the order of the most volatile markets of all time, 1931-1933.