We occasionally publish the composite chart of $VIX dating back to near its inception. For these purposes, we use the original $VIX – $VXO – since it has the longest price history. That history is shown in the chart on the below. It has generally been the case that $VIX rises early in the year, peaks in the spring, declines into the late summer, and then begins a rapid acceleration in October, before finally tailing off towards the end of the year.
The bulls may have kick-started another new upward leg by the fact that $SPX broke out to a new all-time high and $VIX broke down to a new relative one-year low at the close on Friday, April 1st. This comes amidst improving internals, but skeptics still exist. The first upside target -- if this is truly a new leg to the bull market -- is 4068. Conversely, a close below 3870 would negate the recent upside breakout.
The recent broad description of market action has not changed: it is led by the Dow, dragged down by NASDAQ, and it remains volatile. $SPX is caught in the middle.
Despite some very negative days (especially Tuesday, March 23rd), $SPX has not broken down. It probed below that 3870 level on Thursday, and then all of the markets rebounded. That intraday move on Thursday reached down to 3853, so perhaps we should say that support is roughly 3850 3870.
This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 2, No. 10 on May 27, 1993.
We often refer to the put-call ratio in our Sentiment Indicators section. However, judging by questions we have received from subscribers, it might be beneficial to expand on the concept. We will cover the subject both generally and then specifically, in regard to the way we prefer to interpret the ratio. The put-call ratio is simply the number of puts traded, divided by the number of calls traded. It can be computed daily, weekly, or over any other time period. It can be computed for stock options, index options, or futures options.