I was saddened to hear that James Dines has died. I first heard of him in 1972, as I was beginning to trade in my own account. Due to some previous losses, I had given up on fundamental analysis; it was useless as a predictor of short-term moves (and maybe even long-term ones). In addition, I realized that the mainstream analysts of the brokerage firms were not putting out any useful information.
Stocks continued to fall this week, after the last failed "one-day wonder" rally on May 4th. Support was broken at 4100, which quickly saw $SPX trade down below 3900. There is some support at that level, but there is a more well-defined support level at 3700 (the lows of February and March, 2021). Needless to say, the chart of $SPX remains in a downtrend (blue lines in Figure 1).
Realized volatility is exploding as the market swings wildly from one direction to the other. Both last week (April 28th) and this week (May 4th) saw extremely large oversold rallies that rivaled some of the largest "up days" in history. Both were immediately followed the next day by selling of a major magnitude, that more than wiped out those rallies -- and were some of the largest "down days" in history.
The $SPX chart remains in a downtrend. Note the blue trend lines on the chart in Figure 1. Within that downtrend, action has been getting more and more volatile, which is much more typical of a bear market than a bull market. This past week, $SPX once again tested the support in the 4100 4200 area, and so far it has held.
Stocks have had trouble making a sustained move of late. In Figure 1, the major trend of $SPX is down (blue lines). However, within those trend lines, $SPX has been tightly range-bound between 4380 and 4500 for the past week. In more "normal" times, a 120-point range for $SPX over a week would be a lot of movement, but not in today's market.