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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/17/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks broke down early this past week, but found support in the same area as the late-December trading range. Specifically, $SPX broke down below 3930 and traded down into the 3760-3850 support area (the trading range from the end of last December). It found support there and bounced. There is still overhead resistance all the way through the zone from 4080 to 4200

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/10/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks are still reeling from the failed upside breakout over 4100 in February. You don't hear much about it in the financial media, but it is a large psychological weight on the market. Moreover, the resistance area that was left behind when the market retreated after its failure is strong, in the 4080 4200 area.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/3/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Prices edged lower this week, as the bulls are still reeling from the failed upside breakout that took place in February. After the breakout (whether you consider it to be over resistance at 4100 or whether you consider it to be the blue triangle in Figure 1), prices have pulled back below the apex of that triangle and volatility seems to be slowing down at least on a closing basis.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/24/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The specter of a false upside breakout has come true, and that could prove to be a major problem for the market. In late January $SPX broke out over 4100, and it looked like the bull market was ready to return. However, the breakout only reached 4200 before prices turned south again. Now, $SPX has fallen below short-term support at 4060-4070, which in my opinion, completes the false upside breakout scenario.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/17/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks have struggled since the beginning of the month, after having traded at resistance at 4200. $SPX has fallen back below the previous breakout level of 4100. Any close below 4070 would be the lowest close since January, and that would be a further negative for stocks. $SPX has probed down towards that level a few times, but has bounced back up each time. Still, a close below 4070 would open the door to a retracement of the entire previous trading range -- down to 3900, or 3800 on a more extreme move.