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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/7/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks charged ahead to a new yearly high at the end of the second quarter, but have faltered a bit since then. A rather sharp pullback occurred yesterday, based on fears that the central banks around the world are not done raising interest rates. That's news? I guess it was to those who sold yesterday. In any case, that pullback closed a couple of upside gaps on the $SPX chart. However, it has left a potentially important island reversal on the $SPX chart now (circled area on the chart in Figure 1).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/30/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The correction that took place following June option expiration (the 3rd Friday) lasted just about a week, and prices have rallied since then. That decline bottomed out at about 4330 very nearly the peak of last August. So that is the first support level now. There is further support at 4200, the level which had represented resistance for so long. Any pullbacks should find ample support there, but if $SPX were to fall back below 4200, that would represent a very bearish development.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/23/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

When $SPX broke out over 4300 on June 9th, a strong rally was unleashed. Perhaps that rally got carried away, as several indicators moved into overbought territory, and the Index itself traded above its +4sigma "modified Bollinger Band" (mBB). That exhausted a lot of buying power it seems, and now the Index is pulling back.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/16/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Now that $SPX has broken out of the extended trading range (essentially 3800-4200, which lasted for over six months), it is gaining momentum as traders are trying to "catch up." This is beginning to create overbought conditions, but "overbought does not mean sell."

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/9/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market confirmed the breakout over 4200, with only a minor consolidation. Now it is attempting to break out above 4300, which is the next resistance level. If that is accomplished, then there should be somewhat clear sailing overhead for a while.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish, as they continue to fall. They are in overbought territory, but "overbought does not mean sell."