Predicting stock prices consistently is difficult.
Predicting volatility behavior, however, is often easier.
That is why many professional option traders focus more on volatility than on price direction.
Every option price reflects a forecast about future volatility. Market makers and traders must estimate how much the underlying asset will move over time, and those estimates are reflected in the option’s implied volatility.
In The Option Strategist Newsletter, we recently had a very nice profit on a long run by the Silver ETF (SLV). We rolled that position seven times, each time taking a credit from selling a relatively deeply in-the-money call option and replacing it with an at-the-money call.
Volatility is one of the most misunderstood — and most powerful — forces in the options market. In this webinar, we go far beyond the basic definition of $VIX and examine how volatility derivatives actually behave in real market conditions. From understanding the mechanics of $VIX futures and term structure, to implementing “The Big (Volatility) Short,” to using $VIX/SPY hedged spreads during extreme discounts, this session focuses on practical strategy. If you trade options, manage portfolio risk, or use volatility products like VXX, SVXY, or $VIX options, understanding how these instruments are constructed — and when they diverge — is essential.
Most traders talk about delta, gamma, theta, and vega — but far fewer truly understand how they are derived, how they interact, and how they shape real portfolio risk. In this webinar, we go beyond definitions and dig into the models behind the “Greeks,” beginning with Black-Scholes and extending into practical neutrality, volatility trading, and portfolio projections. If you want to understand how professional traders measure and manage risk — not just direction — this presentation lays the groundwork.
How should you properly insure a stock portfolio?
Most investors default to buying puts — but the reality is that portfolio insurance is far more nuanced. The cost, structure, and implementation all matter. In many cases, the “standard” approach is not the most efficient one.
In this newly posted webinar, Insurance Using Derivatives, we walk through a complete framework for hedging equity exposure, including:
Volatility has increased with the failure once again of $SPX to clearly break out to new all-time highs. It last made a marginal new all-time intraday high on January 28th. SPX continued to probe those highs and then fell back. That established resistance near 7000. At that point, selling accelerated, taking $SPX down to 6780 at the close on Feb 5th, from where it has bounced strongly today.
We’ve begun publishing our full catalogue of recorded webinars on The Option Strategist Substack — and we’ll be adding more in the coming weeks.
These are complete, in-depth strategy sessions taught by me, Lawrence G. McMillan, covering everything from core option mechanics to advanced strategy construction and risk management.
Paid Substack subscribers receive:
We’ve added another full-length educational webinar to The Option Strategist Substack library: Intermarket Spreads.
The January seasonal trade is usually one of our best seasonal trades (right behind the October seasonal). The trade is to buy $SPX at the close of the 18th trading day of the year, and exit at the close of trading four days later. Typically, large fund managers will put money to work at the beginning of the year (hence, the positive seasonality of the January early warning system), and then complete their buying at the end of the month.
This week saw $SPX make new all-time highs once again and even cross above 7,000 for the first time in history. Was that enough to generate a clear upside breakout? No! Normally, when new highs are made especially repeatedly as they have been since November there would be some strong follow-through to the upside. That has not been the case this time around.
