Recently, there have been some articles in the media – both print and social – about box spreads and how people are using them to get reduced-cost loans. Some of these articles lacked full information and others seem to miss the point completely, so we thought we’d explain how this whole thing works.
We’re going to look at two things here. First, there was recently a period of five trading days in which both $VIX and $SPX were up each day. That has never happened before. Is it significant, or might it be?Second, we have been seeing implied volatility trading significantly higher than realized volatility. That is a subject that we’ve addressed in the past, but we are going to update that analysis to incorporate current conditions.
Last week, something unusual happened — both the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) rose every single trading day. It’s a rare alignment, and one that tends to grab the attention of volatility watchers. Historically, $SPX and $VIX move in opposite directions about 75% of the time, so a full week of synchronized gains stands out.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on September 23, 2025.
Intuit ($INTU) has been flashing some notable signals recently. A weighted put-call ratio buy signal was issued, although the ratio chart itself has not yet visibly turned over (chart below). In addition, a daily McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal was generated on September 5th (chart above).
A week ago, $SPX had made new all-time highs and was flying high on the back of the Fed seemingly turning more dovish (i.e., willing to lower interest rates). But then September began, and the media was full of articles about how it's the worst month (which is true) and traders should beware. So the first trading day of September (last Tuesday) resulted in a sharp intraday loss. However, $SPX rebounded later that day, and since then $SPX has ploddingly moved higher and is now at new all-time highs once again.
Oracle Corp. ($ORCL) just flashed a notable technical shift this morning: a weekly MVB Sell Signal — its first since January 2025 (chart above). The stock also recently issued a weighted Put-Call Ratio Sell Signal (below), meaning several of our intermediate-term indicators are now pointing in the same bearish direction. When these signals align, the probability of further downside increases.
Two of the hardest-hit stocks in the S&P 500 this year — UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) and UPS ($UPS) — both issued daily MVB buy signals today. While this is a notable technical development, it’s worth viewing these signals within the context of each stock’s broader downtrend.
$XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund) just triggered a put-call ratio buy signal, as its weighted 21-day put-call ratio peaked at extreme levels and has now begun to roll over. This type of signal typically suggests that bearish sentiment has reached a capitulation point, and that upside follow-through is likely.
