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What Does a Statistical "Edge" Mean? (02:23)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 2, No. 23 on December 9, 1993. 

We often speak of a position as being "statistically attractive". Many strategists who trade hedged positions have a vague idea of what that means, but would be hard pressed to cite specifics. In this issue, we're going to take a little more in-depth look at what, specifically, constitutes a statistical "edge". This will include looking at the way prices are distributed as well as delving further into the meaning and ramifications of volatility skewing. Then, we'll conclude by looking at a strategy that is currently popular in some circles.

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 10/17/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 17, 2022.

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 10/10/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 10, 2022.

The “Ultimate” Tail Trade? (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Yesterday (October 6th), on the CBOE, someone bought 50,000 $VIX Mar (22nd of 2023) 150 calls for 0.19. So, that’s 50,000 contracts. Strike is 150 for $VIX (or technically, for the March (2023) $VIX futures. And the expiration date is roughly six months from now.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/7/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market closed out September at new lows for the year to date. Those new lows were accompanied by some massive oversold conditions. Seemingly, the turn of the calendar from September to October emboldened buyers, and they bought the market heavily on the first two trading days of October. In any case, this appears to be just another oversold rally, and those usually die out at about the declining 20-day Moving Average of $SPX (currently near 3800), or perhaps just a bit higher. This rally was accompanied by some confirmed buy signals, which we will review shortly. Thus, it might have a better prognosis, but the market has been unable to post any further gains since those two strong days.

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 10/3/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 3, 2022.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/30/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The latest bearish phase of this market began in mid-August and has now carried $SPX to new yearly lows, both closing and intraday. This is a major negative development and reinforces the fact that this is still a bear market. The blue trend lines in Figure 1 echo that sentiment.

Some Thoughts On Covered Call Writing (11:04)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 11, No. 4 on February 28, 2002. 

Covered call writing is not a particularly “sexy” topic – in fact, it’s a strategy that I don’t espouse nearly as often as it is practiced. However, it does have its uses – particularly for specific types of accounts. So, in this article, we’re going to take a fresh look at covered call writing – perhaps from a slightly different viewpoint than you’ve thought about it before. The types of statistics that are covered in this article are going to be available in the new subscriber section of our web site, The Strategy Zone.

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