Leadership once again is in the $SPX Index, although the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) are strong as well. Since the $SPX chart is our primary indicator, we retain a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX holds above support: 4260 (the early June highs), 4165, and 4060 the latter two being the twice-tested lows of June and May, respectively.
When $SPX broke out to new all-time highs in early June, it seemed labored, and that breakout quickly faded. But now, in late June and early July, $SPX has moved to new all-time highs with more authority -- having closed at a new all-time high for the sixth trading day in a row.
When NASDAQ leads the way, the market tends to respond strongly especially in the tech-dominated market of the last 15 months. That's what's happening low: both the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) broke out to new all-time highs this week, after having lagged behind in May. Led by this strong move in NASDAQ, $SPX has once again closed at a new all-time high.
The broad market ($SPX) has failed to convincingly break out to a new high, and now it is back below the old (early May) highs of 4238. A close below 4190 would indicate to me that the attempted upside breakout had failed.
Despite recent market weakness over the past four days, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) flattened out yesterday, but the weighted ratio continues to drop. These ratios will remain on buy signals as long as they are declining.
We have completed the Profit and Loss and Rate Of Return calculations for 2020. The following table sums up one of the best years in our history – the best since the 1990's in percentage terms (+42.2%), and the best ever in terms of total profits (+$146,830). We will soon be sending out a detailed article discussing the various facets of these rather broad categories.