Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on December 12, 2022.
Stocks ran into some severe resistance at the end of last week, when the rally that began in early October ran into the downtrend line of this bear market. Also, the rally peaked out after briefly climbing above the still-declining 200-day Moving Average of $SPX. So far, the bears have won the battle, and there was some rather heavy selling in the early part of this week. This has put the bulls on notice: hold the line at support at 3900, or expect another bad December.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on December 5, 2022.
The market continues the rally that began in early October. Yes, there have been some severe down days mixed in, but $SPX has generally been overcoming one resistance level after another and closing gaps left on the way down (most recently, the island reversal gaps from early September have been filled). This morning's strong job report has knocked the market down 50+ $SPX points, but that is not necessarily a rally killer. The most recent breakout above resistance at 4030 led $SPX to reach not only the downtrending 200-day Moving Average, but the downtrend line for this bear market. Both are near 4100. A strong move above 4100 would break that downtrend line, but it would not necessarily be the end of the bear market. The next resistance level above that is the August highs at 4325.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on November 28, 2022.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on November 21, 2022.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 31, 2022.
The bulls are attempting to extend the rally that began in mid- October. Whether this fits in the broad category of October being a "bear killer" or not remains to be seen, but the breakout over 3800 on the $SPX chart this week was a positive development. As long as the Index holds that level, it is significant.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on October 24, 2022.
Deeply oversold conditions have spurred another rally attempt over the past week. $SPX made a trading low near 3490 on Wednesday, October 13th, and then early this week a strong rally took place. This rally generated some buy signals from our oversold indicators, but there has been no follow-through. The rally peaked at 3760 and has fallen back. There is fairly heavy resistance in the 3750-3800 area, which is where the most recent "island reversal" (circles on the chart in Figure 1) took place. Furthermore, the rally exceeded the declining 20-day Moving Average by a small amount, and then began to struggle. That is the classic action of an oversold rally.
