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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/14/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has pulled back from its late-March rally, and in doing so raised the possibility that the bear market is still in force, but the jury is still out on that. The intermediate-term trend still appears to be down (blue lines on the accompanying chart). Shorter-term activity, however, shows a more positive bias in that the "modified Bollinger Bands" (mBB) are now moving higher. Realized volatility has begun to shrink modestly, and the Bands are pulling closer together.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/1/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The oversold rally that began in mid-March continued strongly through March 29th. That day, $SPX gapped up over double resistance at 4600, and showed strong internals. But then, in a somewhat diabolical way, $SPX turned south again, showing terrible internals and plunged sharply back below 4600 as the first quarter of 2022 came to a close. If that was a false upside breakout, it was one of the bear market's best tricks.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/11/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to struggle. The downtrend of $SPX is quite evident in Figure 1, and as long as that Index is in a downtrend, a "core" bearish position can be maintained. $SPX made a new closing low this week, as it probed down towards 4100 once again. The general area of 4100 4200 still represents near-term support. Below that, the next support area (red horizontal line on chart) is at the highs of about a year ago, just below 4000.