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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/8/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The blue downward trend lines on the $SPX chart (Figure 1) tell us that this is still a bear market (lower highs and lower lows). The halting rally that has taken place since mid-June has been pretty much of a disappointment so far.

There is support at 3740 (last week's lows) and then at 3630 (the year-to-date lows). As for resistance, the previous short-term rally failed at 3945, so that qualifies as resistance. 

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/10/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The oversold rally that began with a furor in late May appears to have run its course. $SPX traded in a 100-point range for seven days, before finally breaking down yesterday (June 9th). The red box in Figure 1 denotes that tight trading range. It now seems likely that $SPX will test the May lows, in the 3800-3900 range. A violation of that area would then see a new leg of the bear market beginning.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/3/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The trend of $SPX is negative (blue lines on the chart in Figure 1), and just last week saw a new lower low to go along with the repeating pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The trend will be negative until that is reversed.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/27/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Last Friday, May 20th, $SPX sold off nearly 100 points intraday but then recovered nearly all of it by the close. That was a new lower low, keeping the downtrend intact on the $SPX chart. But it was also an exacerbation of extremely oversold conditions, and the market has rebounded since then. The bottom line is that while the intermediate- and longer-term are still negative because of the trend of $SPX, the short-term is positive because of new, confirmed buy signals that have taken place. It could carry to 4150 on $SPX, and perhaps as high as 4300.