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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/28/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The bulls are attempting to extend the rally that began in mid- October. Whether this fits in the broad category of October being a "bear killer" or not remains to be seen, but the breakout over 3800 on the $SPX chart this week was a positive development. As long as the Index holds that level, it is significant.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/21/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Deeply oversold conditions have spurred another rally attempt over the past week. $SPX made a trading low near 3490 on Wednesday, October 13th, and then early this week a strong rally took place. This rally generated some buy signals from our oversold indicators, but there has been no follow-through. The rally peaked at 3760 and has fallen back. There is fairly heavy resistance in the 3750-3800 area, which is where the most recent "island reversal" (circles on the chart in Figure 1) took place. Furthermore, the rally exceeded the declining 20-day Moving Average by a small amount, and then began to struggle. That is the classic action of an oversold rally.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/7/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market closed out September at new lows for the year to date. Those new lows were accompanied by some massive oversold conditions. Seemingly, the turn of the calendar from September to October emboldened buyers, and they bought the market heavily on the first two trading days of October. In any case, this appears to be just another oversold rally, and those usually die out at about the declining 20-day Moving Average of $SPX (currently near 3800), or perhaps just a bit higher. This rally was accompanied by some confirmed buy signals, which we will review shortly. Thus, it might have a better prognosis, but the market has been unable to post any further gains since those two strong days.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/30/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The latest bearish phase of this market began in mid-August and has now carried $SPX to new yearly lows, both closing and intraday. This is a major negative development and reinforces the fact that this is still a bear market. The blue trend lines in Figure 1 echo that sentiment.