The oversold rally that began with a furor in late May appears to have run its course. $SPX traded in a 100-point range for seven days, before finally breaking down yesterday (June 9th). The red box in Figure 1 denotes that tight trading range. It now seems likely that $SPX will test the May lows, in the 3800-3900 range. A violation of that area would then see a new leg of the bear market beginning.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on June 6, 2022.
The trend of $SPX is negative (blue lines on the chart in Figure 1), and just last week saw a new lower low to go along with the repeating pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The trend will be negative until that is reversed.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 31, 2022.
Last Friday, May 20th, $SPX sold off nearly 100 points intraday but then recovered nearly all of it by the close. That was a new lower low, keeping the downtrend intact on the $SPX chart. But it was also an exacerbation of extremely oversold conditions, and the market has rebounded since then. The bottom line is that while the intermediate- and longer-term are still negative because of the trend of $SPX, the short-term is positive because of new, confirmed buy signals that have taken place. It could carry to 4150 on $SPX, and perhaps as high as 4300.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 23, 2022.
The stock market continues to decline, reaching new relative lows again this week. The downtrend on the $SPX chart is still in place. For this reason, we are maintaining our "core" bearish position. However, oversold conditions are building, and there will certainly be at least an oversold rally, which will be tradeable.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 16, 2022.
Stocks continued to fall this week, after the last failed "one-day wonder" rally on May 4th. Support was broken at 4100, which quickly saw $SPX trade down below 3900. There is some support at that level, but there is a more well-defined support level at 3700 (the lows of February and March, 2021). Needless to say, the chart of $SPX remains in a downtrend (blue lines in Figure 1).
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 9, 2022.
