The market broke down badly once the support at area at 5370 gave way. It eventually became oversold, and is still trying to sustain an oversold rally. Typically, oversold rallies carry up to the declining 20-day Moving Average, or perhaps just a little higher before turning downward once again. That could occur just below the 5400 level. There is also a gap on the $SPX chart which would be filled at 5410, so 5400-5410 is about where the extent of this oversold rally should reach.
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The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), continues to rise, making new all-time highs, both intraday and on a closing basis. This alone makes the $SPX chart bullish and dictates that we continue to hold a "core" bullish position.
There are several support levels beneath the market as it has worked its way up in a stair-step fashion: 5450, 5380, and 5260.
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At the current time, $SPX is making new all-time highs daily (four days in a row and five of the last seven). Hence, the $SPX chart is very bullish. There is a support zone, originally created by the trading range in mid-May, from 5260 to 5325. This week's daily lows quickly bounced from the 5330 area. A close back below 5260 would be negative, but that is certainly not imminent.
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Stocks seemed a little "tired" after making new all-time highs earlier in May. $SPX traded in a fairly tight trading range between 5260 and 5340 for two weeks. The support at 5260 was important because that's where the old highs were (from late March). $SPX has now broken to the downside, triggering an MVB sell signal among other things, and that breakdown should be respected.
