By Lawrence G. McMillan
(Barron's) - This bull market is rather unpopular—and that's good.
Since the rally began in early June, most investors and traders have doubted the advance because they were so afraid of Europe's debt crisis, U.S. economic problems, and even the U.S. presidential election.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Stocks have rallied to the top of the bullish $SPX channel (see chart, Figure 1). The top of the channel is at about 1410 currently, and the yearly highs are at 1420. So, that area is likely to provide some resistance for now.
Meanwhile, equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish.
Market breadth indicators are on buy signals, having reversed negative signals from the previous week.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Bears are having trouble understanding why the stock market continues to rise, but in reality it’s due in part to the fact that there are still too many bears. Many of the people who would be sellers have already sold and are now sitting back waiting for the market to go down. That strategy rarely works.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Almost like clockwork, the pendulum of this market swings back and forth within the bullish trading range that $SPX occupies. As long as $SPX stays within this range, the overall picture is bullish.
However, this time around, we are starting to see some more deterioration in some other technical indicators. In particular, the equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to seriously weaken. Moreover breadth indicators are on sell signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Since the broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, bottomed in early June, the ensuing rise has been met with doubt, skepticism, and even outright derision (dare we say “hate?”) in some cases.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This week's selling drove $SPX down to the lower end of its bullish trading channel (see Figure 1). The selling managed to dissipate right near the lower channel, and so the bullish pattern is maintained.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bullish throughout this recent decline, just as they have generally remained bullish since generating intermediate-term buy signals right near the June stock market lows.
Market breadth wavered early in the week, but are back on buy signals now.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — As you may be aware, we’ve been bullish on the broad stock market since shortly after the early June lows.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
$SPX exceeded its early July highs today. That is a new high for this recovery rally that began in early June. As a result, the classic bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows on $SPX has expanded and been strengthened by adding this new high (see Figure 1).
Equity-only put-call ratios remain strongly on buy signals. They continue to decline, and that is bullish for stocks.
Market breadth has been reasonably strong of late. Breath indicators are on buy signals, and they are modestly overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market sold off sharply on Tuesday when Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke, but then staged a strong reversal rally – closing hear the highs of the day. This continues the strong pattern on the $SPX chart, and we expect a successful challenge of the 1375 resistance area shortly.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline, and that is bullish for stocks. They have not declined so far that they would be considered overbought. Therefore, these intermediate-term indicators are pointing strongly higher.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
In late June and early July, $SPX staged a strong upside breakout, taking the average to new relative highs (and most other major averages followed). This created the very bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the $SPX chart, after the bottom in early June. As the market made these new relative highs, it became extremely overbought. $SPX has backed off about 50 points since July 3rd, alleviating that overbought condition.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals.
