The bulls may have kick-started another new upward leg by the fact that $SPX broke out to a new all-time high and $VIX broke down to a new relative one-year low at the close on Friday, April 1st. This comes amidst improving internals, but skeptics still exist. The first upside target -- if this is truly a new leg to the bull market -- is 4068. Conversely, a close below 3870 would negate the recent upside breakout.
The recent broad description of market action has not changed: it is led by the Dow, dragged down by NASDAQ, and it remains volatile. $SPX is caught in the middle.
Despite some very negative days (especially Tuesday, March 23rd), $SPX has not broken down. It probed below that 3870 level on Thursday, and then all of the markets rebounded. That intraday move on Thursday reached down to 3853, so perhaps we should say that support is roughly 3850 3870.
At face value, it appears that the bulls may be having trouble holding onto the gains from the upside breakout to new highs by $SPX. But a closer look shows the glaring discrepancy between the Dow ($DJX) and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ). The Dow was the first of the major indices to register a new all-time buy $NDX has lagged badly behind, having last made a new all-time high in mid-February. $SPX is caught somewhere in the middle, because it has all the Dow stocks in it and most of the $NDX stocks as well.
Bulls took charge this past week with a furious rally on strong volume -- what turned out to be one of the strongest 5- day periods on record. This market clearly still belongs to the bulls, and the only confirmation left is a close above 3950 to set off the next leg higher.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to move higher, despite the broad market's big rally. These indicators are thus on sell signals and will continue to be as long as they are rising.