Leadership once again is in the $SPX Index, although the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) are strong as well. Since the $SPX chart is our primary indicator, we retain a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX holds above support: 4260 (the early June highs), 4165, and 4060 the latter two being the twice-tested lows of June and May, respectively.
When $SPX broke out to new all-time highs in early June, it seemed labored, and that breakout quickly faded. But now, in late June and early July, $SPX has moved to new all-time highs with more authority -- having closed at a new all-time high for the sixth trading day in a row.
The broad market ($SPX) has failed to convincingly break out to a new high, and now it is back below the old (early May) highs of 4238. A close below 4190 would indicate to me that the attempted upside breakout had failed.
Despite recent market weakness over the past four days, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) flattened out yesterday, but the weighted ratio continues to drop. These ratios will remain on buy signals as long as they are declining.
The stock market has run into considerable resistance at the top of the trading range, as it appears to be consolidating for a violent move either an upside breakout to new all-time highs, or a failure at the top of the range, leading to a swift retracement to the bottom of the range (4060). Since May 24th, $SPX has not closed above 4208 nor below 4192. That is an extremely narrow range, considering the volatility that has been displayed since February 2020.