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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/13/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continued to fall this week, after the last failed "one-day wonder" rally on May 4th. Support was broken at 4100, which quickly saw $SPX trade down below 3900. There is some support at that level, but there is a more well-defined support level at 3700 (the lows of February and March, 2021). Needless to say, the chart of $SPX remains in a downtrend (blue lines in Figure 1).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/6/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Realized volatility is exploding as the market swings wildly from one direction to the other. Both last week (April 28th) and this week (May 4th) saw extremely large oversold rallies that rivaled some of the largest "up days" in history. Both were immediately followed the next day by selling of a major magnitude, that more than wiped out those rallies -- and were some of the largest "down days" in history.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/29/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart remains in a downtrend. Note the blue trend lines on the chart in Figure 1. Within that downtrend, action has been getting more and more volatile, which is much more typical of a bear market than a bull market. This past week, $SPX once again tested the support in the 4100 4200 area, and so far it has held.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/22/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks have had trouble making a sustained move of late. In Figure 1, the major trend of $SPX is down (blue lines). However, within those trend lines, $SPX has been tightly range-bound between 4380 and 4500 for the past week. In more "normal" times, a 120-point range for $SPX over a week would be a lot of movement, but not in today's market.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/14/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX has pulled back from its late-March rally, and in doing so raised the possibility that the bear market is still in force, but the jury is still out on that. The intermediate-term trend still appears to be down (blue lines on the accompanying chart). Shorter-term activity, however, shows a more positive bias in that the "modified Bollinger Bands" (mBB) are now moving higher. Realized volatility has begun to shrink modestly, and the Bands are pulling closer together.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/8/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

A week ago, it appeared that $SPX had a chance to challenge its old highs. But subsequently selling has dashed those hopes at least temporarily, and now the question is whether support near 4420 will hold. A move above 4637 (last week's highs) would justify a bullish stance, while a move below 4420 would justify a bearish stance.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/1/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The oversold rally that began in mid-March continued strongly through March 29th. That day, $SPX gapped up over double resistance at 4600, and showed strong internals. But then, in a somewhat diabolical way, $SPX turned south again, showing terrible internals and plunged sharply back below 4600 as the first quarter of 2022 came to a close. If that was a false upside breakout, it was one of the bear market's best tricks.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/18/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market has staged a ferocious oversold rally. Bear market rallies always look great until they fail. This rally has now reached the upper side of the downtrend channel (blue lines in Figure 1). Of course, it is always possible that this is the real thing i.e., a market bottom -- and not an oversold rally. In my opinion, the difference- maker will be if $SPX can close above 4600.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/11/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to struggle. The downtrend of $SPX is quite evident in Figure 1, and as long as that Index is in a downtrend, a "core" bearish position can be maintained. $SPX made a new closing low this week, as it probed down towards 4100 once again. The general area of 4100 4200 still represents near-term support. Below that, the next support area (red horizontal line on chart) is at the highs of about a year ago, just below 4000.


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