A little more than a week ago, the FOMC meeting concluded (on July 29th), and traders were not happy. They sold the market before and after the meeting, closing $SPX that day at 7316. But then a series of events both real and psychological took place that released a buying panic.
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Despite one downward probe on July 29th, $SPX has managed to trade in a range and close at almost the same price every day. Near- term resistance is at 7430. After that failure on the 29th, the market bounced off the 7300 level with a vengeance the next day, so that is support. Even so, if one looks at the chart of $SPX in Figure 1, it is obvious that there is a new downtrend line that can be drawn, connecting the failed rally attempts that took place during July.
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The market has been frustrating to many over the past two months since new all-time highs were made in early June. Bulls expected another attempt at new highs by now, while bears expected a larger correction (given the uncertainties of Iran, interest rates, etc.). But the fact is, $SPX has remained in a trading range over that time.
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Buying the dip has been working on an intraday basis recently, but the larger picture is that there are dips to buy almost every day. That means that $SPX is not making much progress. Despite breaking out on the upside from the triangle formation that had existed, it has run into resistance at 7580 and has failed to challenge the all-time highs at 7600-7620. This keeps the $SPX chart from being upgraded to "bullish." Rather, it is range-bound at best.
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This week, $SPX has tried to break out over the top of the triangle formation that has inhibited price movement since early June. Indicators have improved somewhat, so that is certainly a possibility. However, the next resistance level at 7600-7620 is the all-time highs, and there would need to be a clear breakout over that level in order to turn the $SPX chart to a fully "bullish" status.
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