Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 6, 2025.
$SPX has risen for eight days in a row and is off to a positive start today, which would make it nine. This type of action has been accompanied by buy signals from breadth, equity-only put-call ratios, and MVB -- not to mention short-term buy signals such as "$VIX crossover" and "oscillator differential." Still, as impressive as all that is, the $SPX chart is still bearish because it's still in a potential downtrend.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 28, 2025.
It really feels like the market is rallying strongly, and perhaps the bottom is in. But the evidence is not clear on that. Even though $SPX has rallied nearly 400 points from Monday's lows, this is still a bearish $SPX chart. First of all, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is intact. Second, $SPX has not overcome resistance in the 5500 area. Even if it were to rally above 5500 somewhat (perhaps getting nearer to the now-declining 200-day Moving Average) and then turn back down, that would still leave a pattern of lower highs on the chart albeit with a less steep slope on the downtrend line. In my opinion, only a close above 5800 would remove the negativity from this chart.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 21, 2025.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 14, 2025.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 8, 2025.
What had been a mediocre, oversold rally failed right where such rallies normally do -- at the declining 20-day moving average. It just so happened that the 200-day moving average of $SPX was in the same area. That was just over a week ago. Then, $SPX quickly declined to the lower edge of the trading range (near 5500) and found support once again.
