Stocks exploded out of a massive oversold condition this week and put together the best 3-day rally since....1931. That sounds a bit ominous, doesn't it? 1931 and 1932 were two of the worst stock market years on record. In any case, the bulls are enjoying the rally, and it has generated some buy signals from our indicators.
Stocks broke below the December 2018 lows this week, which was a support area that many had expected to hold. This market has blown through every supposed support area there was. The decline held at 2280. The 2280 level was last seen in February 2017. So in a matter of three weeks, the market has wiped out three years worth of gains.
Bear markets move fast, but this is one of the fastest of them all -- on the order of the most volatile markets of all time, 1931-1933.
Markets are in total disarray. I traded through the Crash of '87, and through the Financial Crisis of 2008, and this is worse. On Wednesday night, March 11th, I was asked "Do you think we're going to crash?" My reply was, "I think we already have."
Stocks had been declining somewhat since mid-August 1987. The week of October 12-16, 1987, saw an “up” day on Tuesday, October 13th, but then three successive down days, through the rest of the week. Friday, October 16th, 1987, was an expiration day (back then, the 3rd Friday was the only monthly expiration for listed options). The Dow closed down 110 that day – the worst decline, in points, in its history.
The markets are moving so quickly right now that it's difficult to assess some of the technical indicators. This is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that volatility-based hedges are keeping traders afloat.
After two monster rally days this week (Monday and Wednesday), $SPX has resumed its decline with a vengeance. The lows of last Friday, February 28th, at 2885 still represent support although in a market moving this fast, is there really any "support?"