The market has definitely run into some trouble, and this time it might be significant. However, $SPX has held at a well- defined support level several times now, so that gives us a clear demarcation line between bullish and bearish on the chart.
Trouble initially began recently on October 10th, when the new round of China tariffs was threatened. The market threw a "tariff tantrum," and stock prices plunged. The lows that day were near 6500.
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The stock market didn't seem to care much about the government shutdown at all. This is a government spending shutdown and is not nearly as negative for stocks as would be a government default. In general, the stock market seems to drop initially and then moves on to other things. This time, there have been nothing but higher highs by $SPX since the shutdown began. These are all new all-time highs by the Index.
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Stocks made new all-time highs again this past week, but early in the week. Even then, breadth wasn't good. Now $SPX has pulled back slightly from those intraday all-time highs of Tuesday. Yes, there are overbought conditions, but more importantly there is the looming September 30th deadline for a possible government shutdown. The market seems to have been much more nervous about that in the last few days, especially since President Trump said that the government might shut down for a few days.
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The Fed lowered rates by a quarter of a percent on Wednesday, and the market liked it. Many people had been expecting a "sell on the news" after that, but instead $SPX has plowed ahead to new all-time highs in a strong fashion. The $SPX chart remains very bullish. There is support at 6500 (the August highs), 6340-6360 (the August lows) and 6200 (the July lows). Those are all marked with horizontal red lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1.
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