Stocks did an abrupt about face this week and have rallied strongly every day. At first, this rally was propelled by some strong oversold conditions and the fact that $SPX had bounced off its lower downtrend line. But as the week wore on, reports from the FOMC meeting and the Unemployment statistics emboldened investors who care about such things. This was all taking place during what is arguably the strongest seasonal pattern of the year.
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The dominating feature of the $SPX chart is the downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows: that's all you really need to be aware of. Don't overthink it. New lows were made again this week. So, we are still carrying a "core" bearish position.
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Last week, $SPX had pulled back to support at 4200 and also to its rising 200-day Moving Average. A rally has taken place since, verifying the worth of those items as support for the market. However, $SPX is still in a downtrend (red lines in Figure 1), and that makes it a bearish chart by definition.
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Stocks continue to fall, as the downtrend that began at the end of July persists (red lines on the chart in Figure 1). New relative lows were made again this week, so the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is evident. That defines a downtrend, and it also warrants holding a "core" bearish position.
