By Lawrence G. McMillan
$SPX rallied strong yesterday, bouncing off the support at 1425-1430, and that support was/is bolstered by the rising trendline at the bottom of the trading channel that has defined this bull market since June. The buying accelerated late in the day, and it seemed as if the bears were capitulating to some extent. Overnight, S&P futures have been strong again – gaining another 7 points in Globex trading.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
We have been bullish continuously since early June. But recent events and indicator changes have put this short-term forecast into jeopardy.
$SPX has support at 1430 from two downward probes in September. This week, that has also been the low. Hence, it has become important support.
One of the more negative developments is the fact that both the standard and the weighted equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals now.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market continues to mark time, in the wake of the massive overbought condition that arose on September 14th -- right after the Fed announced the latest round of Quantitative Easing. This type of action will, in my opinion, lead to a rally to new highs.
$SPX remains well within the bullish channel that has defined this market since the early June lows.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) remains in a bullish uptrend. The recent selling has drawn the index down from the top of the bullish channel that has defined this uptrend since early June (see Figure 1), but it only pulled back about halfway through the channel.
Equity-only put-call ratios are mixed. The standard ratio (chart, above left) continues to decline nearly every day. Thus it remains on a buy signal. The weighted ratio has now curled upward and is marked as a sell signal.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market continues to be resilient, if dull. The bears have not been able to force prices downward, despite what was a very overbought condition a week ago.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish. Both the standard and weighted ratio have now made new lows for this recent move, and that confirms their buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Yesterday's market was one of the quietest days so far. $SPX had a total range of 5.34 points for the entire day. That is minuscule. In recent months, this sort of action has only been a precursor to further upside movement – and it wouldn't be surprising to see it happen again. Of course, there are still overbought conditions, but we would expect any correction to be short-lived and probably contained by support at $SPX 1430-1440.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market continues to march higher, listening to its own bullish rhythms and eschewing the potentially bad news that has kept many investors on the sidelines.
Today's rally has taken $SPX all the way up to the upper band of the bullish channel that has defined this market since early June. That in itself is an overbought condition of sorts. Today's highs also exceed the late 2008 highs, so the next target is the late 2007 highs, near 1500.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market continues to move higher, albeit at a very slow pace. The bears have been frustrated at mostly every turn, as one negative news item after another has been tossed aside in favor of the “risk-on” strategies dictated by the expected monetary easings from both Europe and the U.S.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has been meandering sideways for the past couple of weeks. This had the effect of alleviating the overbought conditions that had existed two weeks ago. Finally, today, the ennui ended, as $SPX blasted to the upside. It made new post-2008 highs, and it looks certain now to test 1440-1450.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals throughout the last three months. However, they are now reaching extremely low levels on their charts.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market has been in a dull, drifting mode all week. It is still easily within the bullish trend channel that began last August, and as long as that statement continues to be true, the bulls have the upper hand.
Equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to waver, but for the time being they remain on buy signals.
Market breadth oscillators turned bearish a week ago. They have remained on sell signals ever since.
