Weekly Commentary 11/30/12

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Now that $SPX has closed above 1410 on a closing basis, that is a bullish upside breakout.  There is further overhead resistance at 1430, and then it is possible that the market could try for the yearly highs near 1470.

Equity-only put-call ratios are solidly on buy signals.  They turned quickly from uptrends to downtrends, just last week.

Market breadth indicators have swung back and forth with short- term movements.  But now they are solidly on buy signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have remained subdued for months now -- even during the stock market decline of October and early November. $VIX fell below 16 over a week ago and has remained there ever since.  In general, it is bullish for stocks that $VIX is subdued and in a downtrend. 

In summary, the indicators are bullish now, so we expect higher prices in the intermediate term.

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