The major indices are all enjoying a booming bull move to new all- time highs $SPX, $NDX, and $RUT (while the Dow is closing in on its highs as well). This display of strength has occurred in the face of potential geopolitical worries, which indicates that "the market" isn't too concerned with those. $SPX has strong support at 7000 -- the previous all-time highs -- as well as minor support at 7125 and 7050.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 27, 2026.
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Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on April 13, 2026.
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Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on March 16, 2026.
Both in May 2025 and October 2025, we published articles with the above title. I won’t include them here, because they were too long, but one can find them in the archives of The Option Strategist Newsletter on the website. I will, however, summarize them. It turns out that when realized volatility and implied volatility differ by a substantial amount, it can be a market-predicting event. Here’s the quick summary, using the 20-day historical volatility of $SPX (HV20) as realized volatility and $VIX as implied volatility:
