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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/6/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to fall, as the downtrend that began at the end of July persists (red lines on the chart in Figure 1). New relative lows were made again this week, so the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is evident. That defines a downtrend, and it also warrants holding a "core" bearish position.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/29/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX Index broke down through 4330 a week ago (Friday, September 22nd), tried to rally back above it for one more day and then gave way to a sharp selloff. Thus, 4330 was not only a crucial support level that has now been broken, but it is also going to serve as resistance. There are a number of things going on right now in the market, but as you can see, there is now a downtrend (red lines in Figure 1) -- lower lows and lower highs. That is a full-fledged bearish trend, not just minor correction.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/15/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market is still struggling to find direction, as it remains mired in a narrowing trading range. The "outside" parameters are support at 4330 and resistance at 4540. I continue to feel that a move outside of that range will generate significant, tradeable momentum for the broad market. However, $SPX has recently been trading in an even narrower range than that, after having found some support near the 20-day Moving Average, at 4450.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/8/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks recently ran into some trouble at the 4540 area on the $SPX chart, after having bounced strongly off of the support at 4330 in mid-August. So, those two levels are what is containing the market at the moment. There is further resistance at 4600 and further support at 4200, but it seems to me that those 4330 and 4540 levels are what is going to determine the next breakout and thus the next move with decently strong momentum.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/1/2023

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks have continued to rally ever since the 4330 level was successfully tested a couple of weeks ago. So the larger challenge for the market is whether or not it can overcome the resistance at 4600 -- the late July highs. If so, then all-time highs might soon be in sight. But if not (i.e., if this rally is just an oversold reaction), then a failure of support at 4330 would be a large negative for stocks.