The “election bump” is the term that I have given to the distortion in the term structure of the $VIX futures prices. Specifically the October $VIX futures continue to trade above the prices of the Nov and Dec futures. The following article adds some insight to this condition.
After breaking out to new highs at the end of the previous week, there was only one minor pullback this week, and it was a successful retest of the 5670 breakout level for $SPX. New all-time highs continue to be registered both on an intraday and a closing basis daily. So, the upside breakout to new all-time highs has been confirmed with supportive price action.
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After bumping up against resistance once again in the 5670 area, $SPX finally exploded on through, one day after the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points. A second day's close above 5670 will confirm the breakout and will warrant a "core" bullish position in the Index.
There should now be support throughout the former trading range, 5560 5670. If $SPX falls back below 5670, then it would have to be considered a false upside breakout, though.
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A week ago, things looked rather bearish, with $SPX having broken down from a 5560-5650 trading range, and plummeting quickly to 5400. An oversold rally ensued, but by Wednesday of this week, $SPX was plunging again and reached that 5400 level for a second time. For whatever reason, buyers emerged en masse at that point, and $SPX has rallied 230 points in about two trading days.
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The broad market traded in a fairly tight range between 5560 and 5650 for eleven trading days. Eventually, after the Labor Day holiday, $SPX broke down sharply, losing 120 points intraday in one day. That breakdown now leaves heavy overhead resistance not only in the 5560-5650 range, but at the all-time highs (5670) as well.
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