By Lawrence G. McMillan
$SPX broke out on June 29th, and has since added togains, exceeding the early June highs. This creates the bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows on its chart. $SPX could easily challenge resistance at 1390-1400 in the immediate future.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals.
Market breadth was very strong again, and now the breadth indicators are on buy signals but are quite overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
In a somewhat classic move, “everyone” was bearish and yet the market broke out to the upside. The most recent upside move kicked off in earnest last Friday, after yet another apparent agreement in Europe.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
With so many volatility derivatives and products available for trading now, a debate has arisen as to what is influencing their pricing. Is it actual volatility expectations, or is it supply and demand – or possibly something else altogether? It is important to understand these relationships for several reasons, the most obvious of whish is that it can help one to construct theoretically profitable trades.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
$SPX is back down into its previous trading range. The broadest measures of the $SPX trading range now show support at 1270 (the early June lows) and resistance at 1360 (the mid- June highs). There is also support at 1305-1310, where $SPX has registered daily lows several times this month. The 1335-1340 area is now resistance once again.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals.
At the current time, breadth indicators are on buy signals as well.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market had just about everything going for it in technical terms this week, but then the fundamentalists delivered a nasty blow today (Thursday, June 21st). Technically $SPX is just below the support level of 1330-1340.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, despite Thursday's large decline.
Market breadth was very poor on Thursday. As a result, both breadth oscillators registered sell signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market finally responded to a broad set of positive technical indicators and has broken out to the upside. The individual pieces began to fall into place last week, with the last piece (VIX closing below 21) occurring this past Monday. This should pave the way for a strong intermediate-term rally.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market has an extremely impressive set of buy signals going for it. If the bulls can’t capitalize on this, it’s not clear if they ever will.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
he technical picture continues to improve -- especially in the area of put-call ratios. However, $VIX is still elevated and $SPX is still trapped in a trading range. We need to see improvement in those areas before intermediate-term buy signals can emerge. $SPX is trapped in a trading range, with resistance at 1330-1340 and support at 1305.
Equity-only put-call ratios have now confirmed their buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
After some relatively heavy, but orderly, selling in the past few weeks, oversold conditions finally reached levels that spawned a sharp oversold rally. But oversold rallies, while often unexpectedly strong, are generally short-lived affairs. There is certainly a good chance that this is the case again this time.
$SPX was able to rally to its declining 20-day moving average. There is further resistance at 1340.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
These days, there are more and more volatility indices and futures than ever. One can observe the same sorts of things about them that we do with $VIX futures – in particular, the futures premium and the term structure. We thought it would be an interesting exercise to see how these other markets’ futures constructs compare to that of $VIX. The $VIX construct, for a long time (see chart, page 12) has been that of large futures premiums and a steep upward slope to the term structure.
