Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/13/2024

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad stock market, as measured by indices such as $SPX, continues to probe new all-time highs. This week, there was a positive catalyst in the form of the CPI number, which was benign enough to raise hopes for a further rate cut by the Fed. There is support at 6010, with much stronger support at 5870. As long as $SPX remains above 5870, we will maintain a "core" bullish position. That number may have to be raised eventually, but that's where the strong support is now.

Equity-only put-call ratios plunged to 2024 lows, but have begun to curl upwards over the past couple of days. This is one of the internal indicators that is beginning to show some weakness, even though $SPX is trading near all-time highs. At this point, I have marked this curl upward as a questionable sell signal ("S?" on the chart), because it's possible that this is yet another sideways move by the put-call ratio, such as we saw in October.

Breadth is another internal measurement that is not keeping pace with $SPX. Breadth oscillator sell signals were confirmed in the past week, and this is our only confirmed sell signal at this time. On many recent days, breadth has been negative even while $SPX is up on the day.

$VIX has continued to trade at low levels. Tthe trend of $VIX buy signal remains in place. That buy signal will remain in place until $VIX closes above its 200-day Moving Average for two consecutive days.

In summary, we continue to maintain a "core" bullish position. We will trade confirmed signals around that core, and we will roll deeply in-the-money options.