Join Lawrence G. McMillan as he discusses the current state of his option-oriented indicators and what they are saying about the stock market. This video was recorded from his live webinar on September 19th, 2022.
Click here for a PDF slide deck of the presentation.
The broad stock market has broken out over major resistance at 4170 and should now be ready to challenge the 4300+ level. It is imperative for the bulls that these recent gains be held. That is, if $SPX were to slide back below 4170, that would be modestly negative, and if it fell below 4070, that would be extremely bearish.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on July 5th, 2022.
The latest attempt at an oversold rally appears to be over with very little to show for it. the rally barely reached the declining 20-day Moving Average of $SPX. Typically, oversold rallies overshoot that declining 20-day MA, so this was a particularly weak rally attempt.
The trend of $SPX is still downward, and the pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues to dominate the $SPX chart. In short, this is still a bear market.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on June 27th, 2022.
The broad market made new lows for 2022 a week ago. That reaffirms the pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the $SPX chart, meaning that the bear market is still intact. There should some support at last week's lows, near 3650. Beyond that, one has to go to a longer-term chart to find support: 3500 and then 3200.
At the beginning of 1973, the Dow (no one paid much attention to $SPX back then) made a new all-time high, trading up to 1067. The Barron’s Roundtable, a survey of top money managers and brokerage firm analysts, was published at the beginning of 1973 under the (now infamous) headline, “Not A Bear Among Them.” They were all bullish. President Nixon declared that the Vietnam War was over (although it didn’t wind down completely until 1975). However, stocks had a mind of their own (then, and now), and the Dow began to immediately decline.
I was saddened to hear that James Dines has died. I first heard of him in 1972, as I was beginning to trade in my own account. Due to some previous losses, I had given up on fundamental analysis; it was useless as a predictor of short-term moves (and maybe even long-term ones). In addition, I realized that the mainstream analysts of the brokerage firms were not putting out any useful information.
Okay, there are new products that are not exactly the return of those two very popular ETN’s representing volatility trading (TVIX was double the price/speed of $VIX, and XIV was the inverse of $VIX), but two new ETF’s are attempting to do the same thing.
A week ago, it appeared that $SPX had a chance to challenge its old highs. But subsequently selling has dashed those hopes at least temporarily, and now the question is whether support near 4420 will hold. A move above 4637 (last week's highs) would justify a bullish stance, while a move below 4420 would justify a bearish stance.
