50 years ago, on April 23rd, 1973, the CBOE opened its doors and listed option trading began. For the first time, such things as standardized striking prices and expiration dates were available on an option contract.
The CBOE’s first President, Joe Sullivan, had done a tremendous amount of legwork, regulatory work, and arm-twisting (I’m sure) to get the exchange off the ground.
An item that has been affected by higher interest rates is the premium on S&P (and other) Index futures. The premium on a stock index futures contract is related to dividends (higher dividend payouts decrease the premium on the futures) and interest rates (higher interest rates increase the premium on the futures). We received this question recently, and I realized once again that newer traders may not have seen this before:
It turns out that the increase in interest rates has gone on long enough and raised rates enough that some things regarding derivatives are occurring that haven’t been in place in quite some time – or ever, for that matter. We are going to address a couple of related topics. Newer option traders might not have seen some of these things before, since essentially interest rates have been at or near zero since 2009, until last year.
This is supposed to be a positive time of the year for the stock market -- the so-called "Santa Claus Rally" period. Typically, the market advances about 1% during the last five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. But If this seasonal period ends with a loss, that is generally negative for the broad stock market. As the creator of this system, Yale Hirsch, said: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Classic!
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on December 27, 2022.
Stocks continue to struggle after $SPX broke down through the 3900 support level a week ago. The end of the trading year typically brings with it a short-term rally, classified as the "Santa Claus Rally" by the late Yale Hirsch.
The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX) gets a lot of attention from both technical analysts and the media. That was the case this week, as $VIX spiked higher – rising to 25.84 intraday on December 13th, before reversing sharply downward after the CPI number was released. It closed that day at 22.55, more than 3.00 points below its high, and that generated a $VIX “spike peak” buy signal, by our definition.
Stan Freifeld and I started McMillan Options Mentoring 17 years ago to train students how to trade options successfully while reducing the inherent risks. Earlier this year, Stan decided not to take on any additional mentoring students. He will continue to lead the program and provide hourly consulting services to our customers.
The stock market ($SPX), has continued to rally this week, so the bullish case gained some traction across a number of factors. The close above resistance at around 4000 was a positive step in terms of price and sets up a move to at least the 200-day moving average or the 4070-4100 area.
There are actually three different positive (bullish) seasonal systems that occur between Thanksgiving and the start of the new year. In short, they are 1) the post-Thanksgiving rally, 2) the “January effect,” and 3) the “Santa Claus rally.” These encompass the entire period between the close of trading on the day before Thanksgiving through the second trading day of the new year. Moreover, small caps stocks (as measured by the Russell 2000 Index [$RUT, IWM]) normally outperform large-cap stocks over that time frame. We will describe the system below, but if you want more background, you might refer to the November 14, 2014, issue of TOS (Volume 23, No. 21), although there are other articles scattered over the years that discuss this system.
