The double top in $SPX in 2000 led to a huge bear market. Could it be happening again? To their credit, I have heard a few (very few) market commentators on TV mention the fact that there was a double top in the market in 2000, wondering if it could be happening again now. This is pertinent, of course, because $SPX is laboriously trying to get back to the 2870 highs that were set in January. The average bull (who is just about everyone around) laughs at the idea that $SPX could turn down from here. Admittedly, its chart looks strong, but it did in 2000 also. To evaluate the possibilities, we are going to compare the various technical indicators that we use, comparing their current states to their states 18 years ago.
Stocks continue to press onward, trying to reach the January highs at 2870. Volatility has slowed tremendously, giving the impression that $SPX is struggling to reach those old highs. There is resistance 2870 (the old highs), and there is support at 2800. A violation of the 2800 level would not necessarily mean that a bear market has begun, but a violation of the lower bullish channel would.
While the $SPX chart remains bullish, in that it is in an upward-sloping channel, there are some troubling signs beginning to appear, including a verified "modified Bollinger Band" sell signal.
The $SPX chart itself has seen support at the 2800 level, or just below, on recent pullbacks. Below that there is major supoport at 2740.
When $SPX broke out above 2740 two weeks ago and then followed that with a breakout over 2790, it seemed that further gains were certain. However, the market has stalled just above the 2800 level. Perhaps it's just regrouping, for most of our indicators are remaining positive, but it's hardly a resounding victory for the bulls (yet).
The upward channel is marked with blue lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. The next target would be the top of that channel, which is at 2850 and rising.
The low-volume rally of last Friday (July 6th), finishing up the holiday week, was a breakout over resistance at 2740. That has spurred a strong, quick move to the next resistance level at 2800. $SPX is now bumping up against the March intraday highs, and it has closed at its highest price since January.
$SPX has broken out over resistnace at 2740. This gets it out of the 2700-2740 trading range that is been in for several weeks. The 2700 level has been support and/or resistance for over three months now, acting as a sort of weird magnet for the market.
Last Monday (June 25th) $SPX gapped down below support at 2740, and a rout was on. Within a few hours, $SPX had fallen all the way to the next support level at 2700. The rest of this week has been spent testing that 2700 level, and it has held for the most part. But the breakdown adds a modicum of bearishness to the $SPX chart. There is now resistance at 2740; there is another gap at 2750, and the 20-day moving average is at 2755.
Stocks have had trouble advancing since June 11th, which is when the strong rally that began on May 29th petered out. This week, especially, has seen a pullback that reached the rising 20-day moving average and also tested support just above 2740. So far, this is nothing more than a simple correction, and the indicators have remained bullish for the most part.
The most positive thing one can say about the $SPX chart is that the major downtrend lines have been broken, and the gap at 2750 has been filled. Beyond that, the bulls have had to be satisfied with small gains but a failure to penetrate through the resistance at the March highs of 2800. A close above 2800 would be constructive for $SPX, and that should lead to an attempt to make new highs above 2870.
The island reversal gap on the $SPX chart was finally filled, at 2750, this past week. That moves the $SPX chart out of "bearish" status, but it is still badly lagging indices that have recently made new all-time highs, such as the NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000. Even so, this is a big improvement, for all of the other indicators have retained their bullish status as well.
