$SPX

$SPX

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/15/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX continued its phenomenal post-Christmas rally (which to date has registered over 400 points of gains), but has still not broken through resistance at 2820. Unless that happens, the next peak on the chart will still be a lower high, and the $SPX chart will still have a negative tilt to it.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/8/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The first signs of bearishness are beginning to creep into the superbly strong rally that has taken place since Christmas. $SPX rallied into the 2720-2740 area this week, which is now resistance and has now backed off. Now we have our first sell signal.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/1/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market's new love affair with the Fed continued this week, and the market really took off after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. $SPX has now broken out over minor resistance at 2675, having gained a whopping 15% since the market's low close on Christmas eve (a mere 26 trading days ago).

The most important resistance is at 2800-2820. There is support at 2620, and then 2350.

Some Statistics on Extraordinary Breadth (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Last Friday (January 18th) the “stocks only” breadth oscillator stood at +854.04 – the fourth highest reading of all-time. This is extremely overbought, but is not a sell signal (“overbought does not mean sell”). In fact, in the past, extremely overbought readings have often led to much stronger markets in the short term.

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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/25/19

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks backed off a little this week most of it on just one day which was a rare interruption of the oversold rally. The pullback left a minor resistance point at 2675 on the $SPX chart. But there is plenty of room between there and the major resistance at 2800-2820. As long as the next local high is below 2800, the $SPX chart will still be bearish. That is, there will still be a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average which is our definition of a bear market.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/18/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The oversold rally has carried farther than many had expected. This is not too surprising, for the market is attempting to fool as many people as it can. We have participated in this rally, in accordance with the buy signals from our various short-term indicators and those indicators are still on buy signals. We thus expect the short-term rally to continue.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/11/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks rallied very strongly this week, and the gains that have been registered since Christmas have been spectacular. This has caused most fundamental investors, and especially the headline- chasers, to become very bullish. Do not be lulled into their euphoria.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/4/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart is still bearish, as it continues to exhibit a series of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average. That is a bear market. There is support at 2350, the late December lows, and there is now resistance 2580-2600, which had been support earlier in the year.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/28/2018

By Lawrence G. McMillan

In falling as far as it has, $SPX broke below almost all of the support areas that had been in place. There is now support at 2350 -- last Monday's lows. There was also a bit of support in that area back in the spring of 2017, but that is probably rather meaningless; support that old is not too relevant to a market that has this much momentum and volatility.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 12/7/2018

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The action in the stock market is getting more volatile, at least in realized terms (implied volatility has not kept pace). The bottom line is that resistance at 2800-2820 has been reinforced, and similarly, support at 2580-2620 has been reinforced as well. The $SPX chart is bearish, in our opinion, as long as $SPX remains below 2820.

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