The stock market's new love affair with the Fed continued this week, and the market really took off after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. $SPX has now broken out over minor resistance at 2675, having gained a whopping 15% since the market's low close on Christmas eve (a mere 26 trading days ago).
The most important resistance is at 2800-2820. There is support at 2620, and then 2350.
Last Friday (January 18th) the “stocks only” breadth oscillator stood at +854.04 – the fourth highest reading of all-time. This is extremely overbought, but is not a sell signal (“overbought does not mean sell”). In fact, in the past, extremely overbought readings have often led to much stronger markets in the short term.
Stocks backed off a little this week most of it on just one day which was a rare interruption of the oversold rally. The pullback left a minor resistance point at 2675 on the $SPX chart. But there is plenty of room between there and the major resistance at 2800-2820. As long as the next local high is below 2800, the $SPX chart will still be bearish. That is, there will still be a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average which is our definition of a bear market.
The oversold rally has carried farther than many had expected. This is not too surprising, for the market is attempting to fool as many people as it can. We have participated in this rally, in accordance with the buy signals from our various short-term indicators and those indicators are still on buy signals. We thus expect the short-term rally to continue.
Stocks rallied very strongly this week, and the gains that have been registered since Christmas have been spectacular. This has caused most fundamental investors, and especially the headline- chasers, to become very bullish. Do not be lulled into their euphoria.
The $SPX chart is still bearish, as it continues to exhibit a series of lower highs and lower lows, occurring beneath a declining 200-day Moving Average. That is a bear market. There is support at 2350, the late December lows, and there is now resistance 2580-2600, which had been support earlier in the year.
In falling as far as it has, $SPX broke below almost all of the support areas that had been in place. There is now support at 2350 -- last Monday's lows. There was also a bit of support in that area back in the spring of 2017, but that is probably rather meaningless; support that old is not too relevant to a market that has this much momentum and volatility.
The action in the stock market is getting more volatile, at least in realized terms (implied volatility has not kept pace). The bottom line is that resistance at 2800-2820 has been reinforced, and similarly, support at 2580-2620 has been reinforced as well. The $SPX chart is bearish, in our opinion, as long as $SPX remains below 2820.
There have been a number of positive developments in the past week or so: buy signals, oversold conditions producing rallies, and so forth. But the primary concern is how the $SPX chart looks, and it continues to look bearish. It is still in a downtrend, with heavy resistance at 2820. If that resistance were overcome, then our stance would change to a more positive one.
The $SPX chart remains bearish. This week's action did not decline far enough to be a test of the October lows. The support area at 2580-2600 remains the bulls' best hope at the moment. If that gives way, then 2530 is the next stop. A violation of that area would be very negative.
