Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8/10/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks continue to press onward, trying to reach the January highs at 2870. Volatility has slowed tremendously, giving the impression that $SPX is struggling to reach those old highs. There is resistance 2870 (the old highs), and there is support at 2800. A violation of the 2800 level would not necessarily mean that a bear market has begun, but a violation of the lower bullish channel would.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain split. The weighted ratio is on a buy signal, while the standard ratio is merely moving sideways.

Market breadth continues to be a lagging, but interesting, indicator. Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals. That may seem strange, considering that cumulative advance-decline lines are once again making new all-time highs. What is happening is that, on a vast majority of days, breadth is positive, but not by much. That is not what one wants to see at new all-time highs. Breadth should be better.

Volatility indices drifted to new post-January lows this week. As long as $VIX remains below 15, stocks can continue to rally.

In summary, the price chart of $SPX continues to dominate the technical landscape, and it is bullish. Unless support is broken at 2800, the bulls will remain in charge -- despite the somewhat negative picture being painted by a few other indicators.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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