Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on February 7, 2022.
The broad stock market had a very strong rally over the 4-day period, extending from January 28th through February 2nd. The oversold conditions that existed just prior to that were massive and part of the rally was a reaction to those conditions. In addition, there is a verified positive seasonality to the end of January, as mutual funds and other large institutions put cash to work. Both of those conditions aided the rally greatly, but they are no longer in effect. For now, the demarcation line between bear market and a possible reversion back to a bull market is the negative trendline show in blue in Figure 1.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on January 31, 2022.
$SPX continues to be the best relative performer of the major indices. $NDX (QQQ) has already broken its lows of last September. Meanwhile, the Dow ($DJX) probed the lows of last spring. By far the worst performer, though, is the Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM), which has essentially wiped out all of the gains of 2021. That is illustrative of what the "average" stock has been doing. I still don't think the media really gets that.
$SPX has support in the 4200-4300 area.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on January 25, 2022.
The stock market has finally succumbed to months of negative internals, and now the large-cap indices are following the "troops" lower. $SPX has broken down below the bottom of the trading range, violating support at 4500. Not only that, but it has closed below the December lows, which is another longer-term negative for the market.
This decline has exacerbated oversold conditions in many areas, though, so expect violent oversold rallies within what is now a bearish downtrend.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, January 17, 2022.
The $SPX Index fell back below 4700 and has been struggling ever since. It has returned to its former trading range (4500 - 4700). A close below 4500 would also be a close below December's lows - often the hallmark of the beginning of a bear market. Meanwhile, a move above 4800 would return everything to a "bullish" status.
Equity-only put-call ratios are not on the same page surprisingly. The weighted ratio is rising, and so it is on a sell signal. The standard ratio is on a buy signal.
Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on Monday, January 10, 2022.
The fact that $SPX and the Dow ($DJX) are out-performing just about everything in the universe is well-known, but there doesn't seem to be any letup in the wide divergence between market internals and $SPX. If $SPX falls back below support and closes below 4690, that will remove the "bullish" status from the $SPX chart. There would still be support at 4500, which is the lower end of that trading range.
