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Weekly Stock Market Commentary 1/14/2022

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX Index fell back below 4700 and has been struggling ever since. It has returned to its former trading range (4500 - 4700). A close below 4500 would also be a close below December's lows - often the hallmark of the beginning of a bear market. Meanwhile, a move above 4800 would return everything to a "bullish" status.

Equity-only put-call ratios are not on the same page surprisingly. The weighted ratio is rising, and so it is on a sell signal. The standard ratio is on a buy signal.

Market breadth deteriorated before the market broke down, and the oscillator sell signals that were generated on January 5th are still in place.

Implied volatility has not advanced much on this current market pullback from all-time highs. $VIX registered a low-level "spike peak" buy signal on January 10th, and that signal is still in effect.

Seasonal factors are approaching once again. There is a brief bearish period, especially for QQQ, that is approaching. Following that, at the end of the month of January, there is a strong bullish seasonal bias.

In summary, $SPX will need to break out over 4800 on the upside or break down below 4500 on the downside before we would consider a "core" position.

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.

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