As far as the $SPX chart is concerned, it has support at 1900. In fact, there is really support all the way down to 1860. A close below 1860 would change things, turning the chart to a bearish state if that were to happen.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio (chart, Figure 2) finally got in synch with the weighted ratio and issued a buy signal a couple of weeks ago.
The market is tired and overbought, but even so it managed to claw its was back yesterday afternoon, reducing the losses to mere fractions. As a result, the indicators closed in their previous bullish states. However, today there is some selling. Ostensibly this is because of a negative World Bank growth forecast. But in reality, plenty of people see the overbought condition and are looking for an excuse to sell. We would rather wait for actual sell signals.
If there were any doubts about the validity of the breakout to new all- time highs, they should be satisfied by now. $SPX has support at 1900, and then all the way down to 1860.
The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. The standard ratio had been lagging, but finally moved into the bullish column last week, joining the weighted ratio.
Market breadth was on the verge of sell signals this week, but they did not occur. So, both breadth oscillators remain on buy signals.
The broad market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) and other indices, has broken out to new all-time highs again. This time, the breakout quickly extended with a strong second day, and today added even more distance. This has turned the $SPX chart bullish.
The stock market is proving to be frustrating to both bulls and bears. Despite chances for each, neither camp has been able to take control. The resistance level at 1900 for $SPX has thwarted the bulls, despite making marginal new all-time highs early last week. Conversely, the bears have had a couple of strong down days, but they have not been able to break $SPX down below support at 1860.
It is hard to imagine a market any more perverse than this one. Once again, there has been a failure to break out on the upside, despite some favorable (although not unanimous) technical conditions. Now $SPX has pulled back into the previous trading range, whose limits of 1810-1900 are more secure than ever.
Tuesday saw very little follow-through to Monday’s strong day, and that was disappointing. Although $SPX and other major averages made marginal new all-time highs, it certainly didn’t look or feel like a good day. $SPX has technically broken out, and it has support all the way down to 1880, or even slightly below.
The stock market continues to frustrate all but the most short-term traders. Anyone looking for a trend to develop has not been able to find one in weeks. Wednesday's low at 1860 is support, as is the previous week's low at 1850. Below there, the April lows at 1810 are a major support level. Resistance, however, exists all throughout the 1880-1900 area.
The stock market is stalled at the high end of its trading range (1810-1900). There is near-term support at last Monday's low of 1850.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain split. The weighted ratio continues to decline from a recent high, and that means it's on a buy signal, while the standard ratio remains on a sell signal.
The stock market is once again nearing all-time highs, although it has not broken out (yet). If $SPX can't punch on through to new highs, then it will remain within the widened trading range. At this point, most of the technical indicators are bullish, so we would expect at least an attempt to challenge the highs.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals for over a month now. That is beginning to change, as the ratios are starting to roll over.
