Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/25/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market is once again nearing all-time highs, although it has not broken out (yet). If $SPX can't punch on through to new highs, then it will remain within the widened trading range. At this point, most of the technical indicators are bullish, so we would expect at least an attempt to challenge the highs.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals for over a month now. That is beginning to change, as the ratios are starting to roll over.

The market breadth indicators are on buy signals and are modestly in overbought territory.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, $VXST, and even $VXN) remain low. As long as these volatility indices remain at low levels, stocks should be able to advance.

In summary, $SPX is into the resistance area at the upper end of the 1810-1900 trading range. Since we have generally positive indicators, we would not be surprised by a breakout to new highs. However, it is far from assured.

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