Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/9/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market continues to frustrate all but the most short-term traders.  Anyone looking for a trend to develop has not been able to find one in weeks.   Wednesday's low at 1860 is support, as is the previous week's low at 1850.  Below there, the April lows at 1810 are a major support level.  Resistance, however, exists all throughout the 1880-1900 area.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to be split.  This is quite a long time for them to be trending in opposite directions, but it is what it is.

Market breadth has struggled to regain a bullish posture as well. After today's heavy afternoon selling, both breadth indicators are now on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, $VXV) remain quite bullish, however.  They remain at relatively low levels, and as long as that holds, the stock market can rally.

In summary, the indicators are mixed, and the outlook is neutral. Admittedly, it seemed as if both the bulls and the bears had a chance to take over this week (especially the bulls, after Wednesday's strong rally), but neither has been able to.  A close above 1900 would be bullish, and a close below 1850 would be worrisome.

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