By Lawrence G. McMillan
When the dust has settled, this looks like little more than a pullback from a slightly overbought condition to test the breakout level (at 1220). To sum up the $SPX chart: there is still support at 1220, and as long as that holds, it's a bullish chart.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals all week, despite the heavy selling earlier in the week.
Also, the breadth oscillators are back on buy signals once again.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Monday and Tuesday had all the earmarks of panic selling, but it has shaken the confidence that had been gathered throughout the strong October rally.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market remains volatile within an ever-narrowing range. For ten days now, $SPX has traded within a range of 1190 to 1230. Clearly a breakout of that range should be significant.
Equity-only put-call ratios are a bit mixed. The weighted ratio rolled over to a buy signal about two weeks ago, but the standard ratio has continued to climb -- thereby remaining on a sell signal.
Breadth indicators continue to remain on buy signals, and they have reached varying degrees of overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, reached a very important point: the top of the trading range, near 1,220-1,230. The trip to get to this point has been an interesting one.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This market is now presenting a difficult choice. It has continued to gain ground almost every day, adding to its overbought condition (the "stocks only" oscillator is above +600, for example), and it is right at the top of the trading range. In addition, futures traded up 7 points or so overnight. In the past two months, these conditions would be screaming for a sell, and indeed the market is having its worst day in a while, by far, today. However, this seems to be a very delayed reaction.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The pace of the recent rally was such that the market is now short-term overbought. For all the movement, $SPX is still within the confines of a wide, volatile trading range -- which now extends from 1070 to 1230. A breakout above 1230 would be bullish, although there is more resistance at 1260.
Equity-only put-call ratios aren't as clear as they sometimes are. The weighted ratio has moved back to a buy signal, but the standard ratio really hasn't.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Sunday's overnight rally turned into a full-blown "melt up" by midday on Monday, as traders were literally in a panic to buy stocks. It was a "90% up day" nearly all day long. Very late in the day, the market started to decline, but then a whole new buying explosion occurred, driving prices to new highs for the day, and closing right on those highs. In the end it was a "90% up day" in terms of NYSE-based data and a "90% up volume day" in terms of "stocks only" data, just barely missing a full-blown 90% up day.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The general market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, broke down badly this week, smashing through previous support at 1,120 and 1,100, and registering new lows for this bearish leg that started back in July.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
These oversold rallies are unbelievably strong – especially this one, which was preceded by three of four days in the “90% down day” category. Yesterday afternoon’s 45-point $SPX rally in 45 points was perhaps unprecedented, and now another 20 points have been tacked on today, as another afternoon rally is gathering strength. Makes one wonder who was selling previously, and where are they now?
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The main feature of the current market is high volatility. Even though $SPX has been contained within essentially an 80- to 100-point trading range (bound by 1100-1120 on the downside to 1200-1220 on the upside) for weeks now, the speed with which it runs from one end of the range to the other has kept volatility measures high.
Equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to look more negative. The weighted equity-only has rolled over to a sell signal. The QQQ ratio has already rolled over to a sell signal, too.
