By Lawrence G. McMillan
Rather heavy selling over the past six days (with the exception of last Friday) has resulted in a deeply oversold condition. That should produce a short-term rally, but after that the picture is far less rosy.
The bigger picture in $SPX shows two converging trendlines: a rising trendline connecting the October and November lows, and the declining trendline connecting several tops since July (which is near the 200-day moving average a major provider or resistance to date). Both are significant.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Despite plenty of volatility, the stock market – as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index — has been unable to break out of its rather wide trading range. That might remain the case for the remainder of this year, but it is likely that early 2012 will see a significant move.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The broad stock market -- as defined by $SPX -- had a major failure today in that it could not break through the upside resistance at 1265 (the approximate location of the 200-day moving average).
Equity-only put-call ratios are now struggling to remain on buy signals.
Market breadth has continued to be a fairly accurate short-term indicator, and the breadth indicators are technically on buy signals even after very negative breadth today.
$VIX has become rather docile, and seems to be calling for more of a trading range environment.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
This week's rally has improved the status of many of the indicators, but not necessarily the chart of $SPX itself. A breakout above resistance and the 200-day moving average at 1265 would be required in order to turn this chart positive.
Equity-only put-call ratios have turned bullish. Market breadth swings the most wildly as these volatile moves occur. Currently, breadth indicators are on buy signals and are not yet overbought.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
In the continuing roller coaster that is this market, Monday was a “90% up day” of gigantic proportions. Advancing volume led declining volume by a nearly 40-to-1 margin, driving the Arms Index down to a near-historic-low of 0.12 for the day. It was a pure “90% up day” in terms of “Stocks only” data, and a “90% up volume day” in terms of NYSE-data. However, as strong as it was, it did not change the bearish slant of the intermediate-term indicators.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Just over a week ago, $SPX was probing the upper end of the trading range, a few days after a strong rally on Veteran's Day. But upside momentun slowed, and selling set in. Since then, the selling has fed on itself with ample aid from a series of unsettling news:
1) the continuing European debt crisis
2) the lack of results by the Super Committee
and 3) the MF Global bankruptcy.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
It just doesn’t seem that this market can put a rally together. There were two attempts to do so this morning, and both failed. Yet, when $SPX probed below 1180, a strong buy program arose. So there are buyers around, but the aren’t likely taking positions to hold, merely to trade.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The bears seized control with heavy selling over the past two days. However, all is not lost, but the bulls certainly squandered what could have been a good opportunity. The $SPX lows today were 1209, with a close at 1216. This is just barely clinging onto the old support range (1215-1230). A rally from this level would be viewed as just another probe to the lower end of the wider trading range.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — When the stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, broke out over 1,220 about a month ago, it was a strong bullish signal. Most of the technical indicators agreed by registering intermediate-term buy signals as well.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
For the second week in a row, a rising market was blindsided by negative "macro" news out of Europe and suffered a violent downturn as a result. What has been quite astonishing is the speed with which the last two declines have occurred. When all is said and done, though, support at $SPX 1215-1220 is still in place.
The equity-only put-call ratios are clinging to their buy signals. Market breadth continues to swing wildly from day to day. Most recently, it is back on a buy signal.
