Weekly Commentary 9/30/2011

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The main feature of the current market is high volatility. Even though $SPX has been contained within essentially an 80- to 100-point trading range (bound by 1100-1120 on the downside to 1200-1220 on the upside) for weeks now, the speed with which it runs from one end of the range to the other has kept volatility measures high.

Equity-only put-call ratios are beginning to look more negative. The weighted equity-only has rolled over to a sell signal. The QQQ ratio has already rolled over to a sell signal, too.

The breadth oscillators are relatively neutral -- neither overbought nor oversold -- at this time.

Volatility indices have carved out a wide trading range as well. $VIX continues to spike up into the mid-40's, generating short-term buy signals.

In summary, expect the market to remain volatile within the stated trading range (1120-1200, roughly). With October approaching, and the put-call ratios turning negative, it seems that a downside breakout is more likely than one on the upside.

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