The action in the stock market is getting more volatile, at least in realized terms (implied volatility has not kept pace). The bottom line is that resistance at 2800-2820 has been reinforced, and similarly, support at 2580-2620 has been reinforced as well. The $SPX chart is bearish, in our opinion, as long as $SPX remains below 2820.
The $SPX chart remains bearish. This week's action did not decline far enough to be a test of the October lows. The support area at 2580-2600 remains the bulls' best hope at the moment. If that gives way, then 2530 is the next stop. A violation of that area would be very negative.
A break of support at 2580-2600 would likely augur for a retest of the February lows at 2530. A failure there, and the real bear market should unfold -- but perhaps not until early next year (December is normally a bullish month, even in bear markets).
Conversely, if $SPX were to climb above 2820, it would be a very bullish sign.
This week saw the ninth biggest one-day point gain in the $SPX in history, as it rose 58.44 points on Wednesday. With that, $SPX had rallied over 200 points in a straight up manner, since the lows just six trading days prior (a time period which included our October Seasonal rally). That is the power of an oversold rally. It may surprise you to know that all of 10 largest point moves in history (by $SPX) have been completely reversed within a matter of days or a few weeks.
Some very wide (and wild) swings have taken place in the market in the last week. Has this changed anything as far as the intermediate-term trend goes? Probably not, but it does show the power of an oversold rally.
One area that is now important as resistance is 2820 -- the top of the first rally a couple of weeks ago. If $SPX were to climb above there and move higher, that would be a much more bullish sign and could change the outlook considerably.
After two horrendous days on October 10th and 11th, the market experienced a solid oversold bounce. Some buy signals were even generated from that bounce, but now it seems to be failing again without having fulfilled even the most basic target of an oversold rally -- the declining 20-day moving average of $SPX. That may still happen, of course, but for now there is resistance at 2820 (the highs of this week). Support is at 2710.
This market is becoming truly divergent as the number of negative indicators and their strength is increasing, but $SPX prices (and those of other indices) have not broken down, nor has volatility ($VIX) increased. The latter ($SPX and $VIX) are more important than the former -- at least for now.
$SPX pulled back to its still-rising 20-day moving average, which was at about 2870 and that was been about the extent of the correction. As a result, the chart of $SPX remains bullish, as the Index is still in an upward-sloping channel and no important support levels have been broken.
The negative seasonality of September seems to be weighing on the stock market. This has caused $SPX to pull back towards support at 2860-2870. So far, that support has held.
A close below 2860 would be of more concern, but even then there is further support at 2840 and then major support at 2800.
The breadth oscillators are now on sell signals. And now $VIX is probing the 15 level. a close above 15 would be bearish for stocks.