A week ago, we noted that there were three short-term, oversold buy signals. Now, more buy signals are occurring, and these are of the intermediate-term variety. The last hurdle was cleared today, when the $SPX closed above 2000.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline from recent highs.
Despite a couple of rough days this week, buy signals have emerged from our short-term oversold indicators, and so we have a more bullish outlook for the short term but not necessarily for the intermediate- term.
$SPX has retested the August lows and formed a "W" bottom, so that is support at 1870. A violation of that area would force a retest of the October lows at 1820. A move above 2000 would be bulllish.
The $SPX chart remains bearish. During the oversold rally that failed at the 2000 level, an upward trend line had developed on the $SPX chart, connecting the daily lows since the 1870 bottom. That trend line was broken decisively this week, as $SPX fell back below its 20-day moving average. For now, the $SPX chart is bearish as long as it remains below the broken trend line (see Figure 1).
The stock market continues to hover in its trading range. Despite some promising buy signals from sentiment extremes in put-call ratios and $VIX, there was no follow-through by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX). We have often said -- and still maintain -- that price is the most important indicator. Regardless, as long as $SPX remains in the broad 2040-2135 trading range, the chart is neutral.
The chart of $SPX is the least bullish of the indicators. SPX remains in the 2040-2135 trading range that has bound it for most of this year. Basically this is a neutral chart.
Put-call ratios are much more encouraging. A strong buy signal has been generated by the standard put-call ratio (Figure 2). The weighted equity-only put-call ratio is also bullish (Figure 3).
Market breadth remains mixed, with the NYSE-based indicator now on a buy signal, but the "stocks only" is not.
$SPX now appears to failing at the top of the range, thereby remaining within the 2040 - 2135 trading range. Hence, the $SPX chart remains neutral as long as it's in that trading range.
Put-call ratios are mixed, but generally are in an oversold state. The standard ratio continues to rise and is thus on a sell signal. The weighted ratio, however, has rolled over to a buy signal.
The oversold conditions that existed last week generated a strong week-long rally. The move above 2100 was constructive, but the chart won't really turn bullish until new highs are made and held.That would require a move above 2135.
Put buying has remained relatively heavy, despite the rally. As a result, the equity-only put-call ratios remain in an uptrend and thus remain on sell signals.
The $SPX chart is now negative, although not terribly so. $SPX traded down to 2045 a couple of days, and has generally found support in the 2040-2050 area. Overhead, there is resistance at 2080-2085, where most trading days in the last week have topped out. There is a series of lower highs on the chart, and the 20-day moving average is declining. All of that adds up to a bearish chart.
Equity-only put-call ratios are bearish, as they continue to rise daily.
$SPX broke down this week as a confluence of potentially bad international news out of Greece, Puerto Rico, and China combined to strike fear into what had been long-complacent U.S. traders.
$SPX has now rallied back above 2070, returning to the previous trading range. From a more bearish viewpoint, though, the 20-day moving average is now trending downward, and there is a series of lower highs on the chart. That is bearish.
