Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/3/15

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX broke down this week as a confluence of potentially bad international news out of Greece, Puerto Rico, and China combined to strike fear into what had been long-complacent U.S. traders.

$SPX has now rallied back above 2070, returning to the previous trading range. From a more bearish viewpoint, though, the 20-day moving average is now trending downward, and there is a series of lower highs on the chart. That is bearish.

Both equity-only put-call ratios have turned sharply higher, and are thus on sell signals.

Market breadth oscillators were on sell signals heading into Monday, and the decidedly negative breadth of that day (it was a true "90% down day" in all aspects) forced the breadth oscillators into deeply oversold territory.

The volatility genie is out of the bottle, and we can expect it to continue for a while apparently. Despite some short-term $VIX buy signals, it is possible that $VIX is beginning an erratic uptrend. Stocks normally have trouble advancing when volatility is trending higher.

In summary, because of the breakdown in $SPX and the negativity of most of the other indicators, we are intermediate-term bearish

This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.