The rally continues to push to new all-time highs in most of the major broad-based indices ($SPX, $OEX, Dow, etc.). The advance has been so straight and fast that it hasn't left any support levels in its wake. The only one was at 2001, so a pullback below 2000 would be negative.
The rally has been a straight-up affair, leaving a "V" bottom in its wake. Fortunately, our indicators have generated a strong series of buy signals along the way.
Since $SPX has sliced through virtually every conceivable resistance area, it makes it difficult to identify either support and resistance at this point. However, the overbought conditions that now exist have -- in the past -- caused the market to stop rising.
The stock market’s rally yesterday was beyond strong; it was downright Herculean. The shorts have been crushed, just a week after they seemed to be in control of things. But are the bulls on safe ground here, or is the market poised to lurch downward again? That’s a tough question to answer, but it certainly does seem that things are a bit overdone on the upside and some backing a filling is needed – at a minimum.
Stocks have had a rocky week, but some buy signals are beginning to appear. $SPX broke down through support at 1925 this week, and immediately plunged to 1820, which is also the area of the April lows. That is support for now. If that should give way, then the February lows at 1740 would be the next support area.
As for resistance, there is plenty of overhead resistance from 1925 all the way up to 1960 and beyond.
The stock market has become extremely volatile, trading up and down hundreds of Dow Jones points in a day. But our indicators have remained steadfastly bearish throughout the last few weeks. For example, despite several big rally days, $SPX never broke the downtrend line that connects its series of lower highs. Until that downtrend is broken, the $SPX chart will be bearish.
The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has broken down badly this week. The decline accelerated after breaking through minor support at 1965. The $SPX chart is now in a downtrend.
One more thing re the $SPX chart: It has been 681 trading days since $SPX last touched the 200-day moving average (on November 20, 2012). This is a record just waiting to be broken. Perhaps this will be the time.
$SPX broke below the bottom of the previous trading range. That is, $SPX closed well below the previous support in the 1978-1985 area. If it can close below 1978 again today, that would confirm the downside breakout and would generate a confirmed sell signal for the intermediate-term.
Equity-only put-call ratios have been on sell signals for nearly two weeks. As long as these ratios are trending higher, that is bearish for the broad market.
Early this week, $SPX closed at a new relative low, and many of the indicators appeared to be turning bearish (for example, $VIX closed above 14). However, prices have rallied since then, and $SPX made a marginal new all-time high today -- both intraday and closing. Is this probe upwards more effective than the probe downwards was a few days ago? It's hard to say, but a further close at new highs would solidify an upside breakout.
Recently the historical (also called actual or statistical) volatility of many of the major indices and their derivatives reached extremely low levels. For example, the 10-day historical volatility of $SPX dropped to 3.7%! In this article, we’ll examine how often this has occurred in the past and what it has meant for the broad stock market going forward from that low volatility reading.
The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has made repeated new all- time highs -- both intraday and closing -- over the past three weeks. This action has, of course, resulted in a "bullish" $SPX chart.
The bears have made several attempts to sell the market intraday, but each time it seems to quickly regain strength especially late in the day.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bullish, AS well.
