By Lawrence G. McMillan
The broad market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has had a pretty good week. First, the 1,420 area was overcome, followed by a pullback to slightly below that level.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Stocks continue to work higher. The main cause is the unwinding of previous pessimism (see put-call ratio charts, for example), although the media won’t believe that. They are certain it all has to do with the fiscal cliff. Regardless, we are beginning to see overbought conditions again, and a short-lived pullback might be in order. However, with the holiday period approaching, it is unlikely that there will be much activity after tomorrow, for much of the remainder of this year.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), moved higher over the past week, overcoming resistance at 1420 and then also at 1430. However, since Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke on Wednesday, the market has pulled back. So far this pullback has caused only minimal damage to the technical indicators, and it would be a relatively simple matter for the bulls to regain control.
Put-call ratios have been strongly bullish and remain so today.
However, market breadth indicators are turning bearish.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The stock market edged higher yesterday, which keeps alive the prospects of an upside breakout in the near future. Equity-only put-call ratios both made new relative lows on their charts, so that is quite bullish. Recall also that the Total put-call ratio moved to a new buy signal at Friday’s close. Breadth was especially positive in terms of “stocks only” data yesterday, and both breadth oscillators remain on buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market has drifted into a dull, waiting state. Despite what appeared to be upside breakouts last week, there was no follow- through. In the end, it will most likely come down to $SPX price once again. In recent days, $SPX has been bounded roughly by resistance at 1420-1425 and by support at 1395-1400. A breakout in either direction would likely create some momentum.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals.
Market breadth oscillators have deteriorated, but they still remain on buy signals (barely).
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — Bullish and bearish forces are both at work, technically as well as fundamentally. Thus, the market is at a point where it could rise sharply or fall sharply — an inflection point.
These matters should be resolved in the days ahead, although the “noise” emanating from the fiscal-cliff discussions may attempt to distort things.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Now that $SPX has closed above 1410 on a closing basis, that is a bullish upside breakout. There is further overhead resistance at 1430, and then it is possible that the market could try for the yearly highs near 1470.
Equity-only put-call ratios are solidly on buy signals. They turned quickly from uptrends to downtrends, just last week.
Market breadth indicators have swung back and forth with short- term movements. But now they are solidly on buy signals.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — While there are still some mixed signals for stocks, some very powerful signals have lined up so that the bulls once again have a chance to take control of this market.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index (SPX) has been in a steady decline since mid-October. There is resistance in the 1395-1410 area, and that must be overcome for the picture to become bullish.
Both equity-only put-call signals have now rolled over to buy signals!
The stock market got quite oversold near the recent lows. Now, Monday's strong oversold rally gave birth to actual buy signals from the breadth oscillators.
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Today's early market action was a continued grind higher as further shorts were forced out of their positions. $SPX made the intraday high just below 1390, the upper end of resistance from 1380-1390. Around 1:00pm EST the Fed Chairman finished up a speech that apparently the market didn't enjoy. This triggered a wave of selling that brought the market down. Despite the sharp midday selloff, we still believe this rally may have some more room to the upside, likely a test of firm resistance in the area of 1400 and slightly above.
