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Market Commentary

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/14/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The strong oversold rally that abruptly began on June 1st is still in play. It is slowing down, but the bears have not been able to retake any of the rally's gains. There is resistance at 2940-2950, with support at 2720-2730.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly on their recent buy signals. The TOTAL put-call ratio is on a buy signal, too.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/7/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

On Monday of this week $SPX was near its lows at 3pm. But from there, there has been massive buying all week. However, the $SPX chart is still bearish, because there are lower highs and lower lows on its chart. Oversold rallies typically carry from their lows up to and slightly above the declining 20-day moving average. That's exactly what this rally has done so far (the 20-day MA is just below 2830).

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/31/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks broke down through 2800 this week, and that had been a major support area. The $SPX chart is negative in that it is trending lower, now with lower highs and lower lows. There is only minor support below here, essentially at 2660-2680.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/24/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The main thing to keep in mind is that $SPX has not broken down below support at 2800. It was tested -- more or less -- once again yesterday and has held so far. A close below 2800 would be very negative from the viewpoint of the $SPX chart.

Overheard, the major resistance on the $SPX chart is the double top at the all-time highs. More than one bear market has started from a similar pattern.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/17/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX bounced off of strong support at 2800 on Tuesday, and then fell back from resistance at 2890-2900 on Thursday, so for now $SPX is in trading range between 2800 and 2900 (roughly). I don't expect that range to last long, and a breakout either way is probably going to gather momentum quickly.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/10/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Supposedly because of the China trade talks, but probably as much because the market was overbought and tired. $SPX headed lower this week. Several support levels have since been violated, but not all of them. This could still turn out to be a minor correction if support at 2800 can hold. However, caution is certainly warranted at this time, as the burden of proof is now on the bulls. The most negative aspect is that there is a double top in place now.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/3/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The Fed announced that they weren't planning on cutting rates at this time. That was a "shock" to the media, but probably not so much to traders. In any case, $SPX sold off after that, causing some sell signals to be generated.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/26/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

$SPX made a new all-time closing high this week. The $SPX chart is strong and bullish, although the internals as represented by some of the other indicators are not nearly as strong.

There is support at 2890 and 2870, with major support at 2800. It seems to me that a break of 2870 support would be a problem.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/19/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The $SPX chart itself is fine. It is rising, with all trend lines moving higher, including the "modified Bollinger Bands." There should be support near 2850, and perhaps even near 2870. Our target all along has been the all-time highs at 2940 and it still is. Unless this market regains some momentum, though, it is going to meet stiff resistance there.

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/12/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Overall, the $SPX chart is bullish. The trend lines and Bands are all moving higher (even the 200-day Moving Average is edging higher), and the only resistance area of significance is that at the all- time highs -- which should be the next stop.


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