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Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/11/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has continued to make new all-time highs, accompanied by strong internal indicators. Eventually, overbought conditions may become confirmed sell signals, but so far that x hasn't been the case.

$SPX has support at 6150 (the previous highs), 6020-6060 (the highest open gap on the chart), and 5920. If it were to fall below 5920 then the $SPX chart would no longer be bullish, but we are not looking for that to happen.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7/3/2025

The stock market, has continued to rise, registering new all-time highs repeatedly. It appears that the current breakout to new all-time highs is stronger than the failed one of last February. There is support at 6150 (the old highs), 6020 (the highest circled gap on the accompanying $SPX chart in Figure 1), and 5920. A pullback below 5920 would negate the current upside breakout, but I don't expect that to happen.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/27/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks are making new all-time highs this morning, as this is being written. This includes $SPX and $NDX, but not $RUT (Russell 2000) and $DJX (The Dow). The $SPX chart remains very positive, and now we need to see if this breakout can be sustained, or if it will turn into another miserable failure, similar to what happened this past February. The internal indicators are improving, though, and this may help propel the market to substantially higher prices this time around.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/20/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks sold off on the Israel-Iran conflict, but only modestly as it appeared that traders were most worried about the U.S. directly entering the conflict which hasn't happened. Moreover, there has not been any particular disruption in the flow of oil.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/13/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad market continues to inch higher, and has so far remained above the previous downtrend line that connected the February and May highs. The only overhead resistance is the all-time highs at 6150. There are several support levels below, from 5940 down to 5700. Several of them are denoted with horizontal blue lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/5/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The downtrend line connecting the February and May highs was a major impediment on the upside, and now $SPX has overcome that. For the previous three days, $SPX has traded above that downtrend line, probing up towards 6000. But each day's close has seen the Index slip back. Today, a strong reaction to the Unemployment Report, has seen $SPX trade up to new relative highs. If it can hold this level today, above 6000, new highs should be the next stop.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/30/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Last weekend, tariffs against Europe were postponed, and the stock market took that as a very favorable sign. When traders returned after the Memorial Day weekend, $SPX gapped higher on what turned out to be a very strong day for the big-cap stocks. The gap from that day extends down to 5830, and it would probably be a positive thing if that were filled. A move below 5700 would be negative. There is resistance at last week's highs near 5970 and also at the all-time highs of 6150.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/23/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The broad market continued to rally through May 20th -- even shrugging off a downgrade of US debt over the weekend. But on Wednesday (May 21st), a poorly received US Bond auction finally sent the market spiraling downward 100 points. That was enough to generate some sell signals.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/16/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

Stocks have continued to rally, after last weekend's positive tariff meeting between the U.S. and China. $SPX gapped higher on Monday, blasting right through former resistance at 5700 and 5800, and thus establishing a new bullish pattern on its chart.

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/9/2025

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The market rallied early this week, peaking out at about 5700 on $SPX. A modest pullback has taken place since then. There is resistance from there on up to 5800. A close above 5800 would be bullish. Otherwise, the SPX chart remains bearish.

There are multiple support areas on down to the early April lows at 4850-4950. They are marked with horizontal red lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. There is one gap left on the chart (circled in Figure 1).

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