For now, $SPX has tentatively found support near 4435. But that only occurred this week, so it is hardly seasoned or tested. The first truly tested support area is still the major one at 4370, and that is not too great of a distance from today's levels. As long as the support at 4370 holds, the bulls are still in control although it might not completely seem like it right now. A violation of that support area, though, would change things in a negative manner.
After making a new all-time high on September 2nd, $SPX has failed to add to the gains. Perhaps the sideways movement is all the correction that this market needs, similar to what we saw at the end of July. Regardless, the $SPX chart remains bullish in that it is above support and all of its major trendlines are moving higher.
There is nothing unusual about this week's market action. $SPX continues to rise after the brief pullback on August 16th to 19th. The NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) is very strong as well and is making new all-time highs along with $SPX almost daily.
The major support level for $SPX is still 4370, although that is beginning to fade into the distance as the Index plows ahead. For now, we are still of the opinion that the $SPX chart is bullish as long as support at 4370 has not been violated.
After bouncing off of support at 4370 last week (the third time that $SPX has found support at that level --meaning it is now extremely important support), $SPX rallied to new intraday and all-time highs. The NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) did the same, but the Dow ($DJX) has lagged behind.
The key to whether the market is bullish or bearish is $SPX support at 4370. Yesterday (August 19th), $SPX traded right down to that level and bounced from there again. That is the third time in less than a month that $SPX has bounced off of that level. Hence, it is valid and substantial support. If it gives way, there will likely be surge of selling. But as long as that support at 4370 holds, the $SPX chart is still bullish, with moving averages trending upward.
The two large-cap indices, $SPX and $DJX (the Dow) have moved to new all-time highs. But now $NDX is falling behind, and the Russell 2000 ($RUT) has been lagging badly all along. Of ourse, this pattern -- or similar ones -- has been in effect since mid-June (and really, even before that in the case of the Russell). As a result, negative divergences persist, but they can last for a long time even while $SPX is merrily moving to new highs.
On the surface, everything appears fine: $SPX made a new closing all-time high twice this week once after a swift upward reversal off of support near 4370. However, it has not made a new intraday all-time high since July 29th, so in reality it is trapped in a very tight trading range between 4370 and 4430 (the all-time highs) A breakout of this range in either direction should give the Index some short-term momentum.
As $SPX has recovered from its July 19th lows and driven to new all-time highs, not a lot has changed regarding the overall picture. It's still the big-cap tech stocks leading the way, as the NASDAQ- 100 ($NDX; QQQ) and Dow ($DJX; DIA) are near all-time highs as well. But the internals of the market are still weak as manifested in the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT; IWM).
Despite deteriorating internals in the market, $SPX plowed ahead to register a new all-time high on 13 of 14 consecutive trading days. That streak was interrupted yesterday.
Leadership once again is in the $SPX Index, although the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) are strong as well. Since the $SPX chart is our primary indicator, we retain a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX holds above support: 4260 (the early June highs), 4165, and 4060 the latter two being the twice-tested lows of June and May, respectively.
