Now that $SPX has broken out of the extended trading range (essentially 3800-4200, which lasted for over six months), it is gaining momentum as traders are trying to "catch up." This is beginning to create overbought conditions, but "overbought does not mean sell."
The broad stock market confirmed the breakout over 4200, with only a minor consolidation. Now it is attempting to break out above 4300, which is the next resistance level. If that is accomplished, then there should be somewhat clear sailing overhead for a while.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish, as they continue to fall. They are in overbought territory, but "overbought does not mean sell."
The market finally looks like it is breaking out on the upside. After numerous failed attempts to exceed and hold above 4200, $SPX seems to be on the way to doing just that. If it closes above 4210 today (June 2nd), that will be confirmation of an upside breakout.
The next target and resistance is the 4300 level the highs of last August. If that can be overcome, then the picture is quite bullish, with only 4650 (the highs of March 2022) and 4800 (the all- time highs) as obvious resistance areas.
The trading range environment for $SPX is still in place. The horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1 depict the extent of the three most prominent ranges that are in place right now. Most recently, the tightest range is 4100-4200. A slightly wider range, 4050-4200, exists if one extends back into April. Then the larger range, roughly 3800-4200 encompasses all of 2023 and even the last part of 2022. Of course, 4200 is the top of all of these ranges. One can be sure that aggressive traders have been and will continue to short the market at 4200. If it eventually breaks out to the upside, there will likely be some heavy short covering to accompany that move.
Once the market perceived that the "debt ceiling crisis" might not be a crisis after all, it began to rise again. $SPX is right at the top of the trading range and is attempting to break out. Those are very positive things. But before we jump on board with both feet, remember that 1) politicians can't be trusted, and 2) there have been some rather severe false upside breakouts by $SPX in the last couple of years.
Stocks have hunkered down into an even narrower trading range this week, although intraday volatility has seen some large moves. As a result, $SPX is still in the confines of the 4050-4200 trading range in the short term, and from a longer-term perspective is in the trading range it's been in all year: 3760-3850 on the downside to 4200 on the upside.
Stocks are still stuck in a trading range. The wider range has its lows in the 3760-3850 area (the lows of both December and March). The narrower, more recent range has its lows in the 4050-4070 area. That was just touched yesterday, but appears to be holding at this time. On the upside, resistance at 4200 is strong and has a lid on this market for now. Above there, the highs of last August at 4300 make for further resistance.
Stocks had been drifting in a tightening range, causing realized volatility to shrink, and boring the heck out of traders -- even though intraday swings were still present. Then with some earnings announcements this week, $SPX first dropped 65 points one day and then rose 80 two days later.
Stocks are definitely having trouble with overhead resistance near 4200. This has been a resistance area since last August (it was a failed attempt to close the gap on the island reversal, noted by the circle on the chart in Figure 1). Then it halted the rally in February, and now it has seemingly halted the current rally. Thus, the $SPX chart is not bullish, in that there is not only the resistance at 4200, but resistance at 4300 as well.
The rally that began in mid-March is persisting. Market internals remain positive, and that is finally having enough of an effect on $SPX (and the market psyche) to push prices higher in a relatively slow manner. Even so, there is formidable overhead resistance at 4200 and 4300, so the $SPX chart will not be outright bullish until those levels are exceeded (in my opinion).
