This week, we had a customer question about the $VIX futures term structure, and I thought this might be a good time to review exactly what it is and what it means, while the market is still in a relatively calm environment.
Stocks (as measured by $SPX) made their highs on the first of March and have been struggling to regain that level ever since. Last week's breakdown beneath what appeared to be important support at 2350 generated enough selling that, this past Monday, $SPX opened down nearly 20 points and seemed primed to head lower. But buyers stepped in at 2322, and it's been nothing but up, up and away ever since. So that level represents important support now.
Larry McMillan's interview with talking Trading from back in October 2016 is now available on their website. In the interview, Larry discusses the Volatility Capture strategy, his best and worst trades and areas of potential growth in the markets.
Click here to visit the talking Trading site and listen to the interview.
The stock market has finally broken a support level, in terms of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX). When $SPX traded below 2350 on Tuesday, it led to a fairly severe down day. This turns the short-term picture negative. The next support level is at 2300.
Equity-only put-call ratios are quite bearish. They will remain bearish as long as they continue to trend higher.
The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) rather quietly bottomed a week ago and has moved steadily higher over the ensuing week. Thus, the $SPX chart remains bullish with support at 2350 level.
Things are beginning to deteriorate, somewhat in terms of price, but mostly in terms of our indicators. We've seen this scenario before, though -- most recently in late December, but the market response was subdued and volatility remained low. That combination resulted in a move to higher prices after December, and it could well be that the same is setting up now.
We usually try to run an article on this subject at least once during tax season. I realize that not everyone is aware of the rules governing Section 1256 contracts. Hence, since tax season is upon us, I thought this review might be of benefit to some of our subscribers – and to options and futures traders, in general. Section 1256 trades include all futures trades, as well as futures options. They also include option trades on cash-based indices ($OEX and $SPX, and especially $VIX), but not SPY or QQQ, for example, for the underlying in those cases is an ETF, not cash.
The $SPX Index has stayed above the +4σ “modified Bollinger Band” since Feb 13th – a total of 13 trading days and counting. This is rather rare, so we thought it might be interesting to see just how unique this is – and to see what happened at similar stages in the past. In the following paragraphs, “days” refers to trading days.
Overall, stocks had another very strong week, although there was certainly some hesitation yesterday. Even so, the trend remains upward for now. $SPX has moved steadily higher in a stair-step fashion all during the month of February. As a result, there are several support levels of interest. The highest is that in the 2350 - 2370 range, and below that is more important support at 2300.
Stocks have continued to move higher across all of the major averages. As might be expected after an advance of this magnitude and length, overbought conditions continue to abound.
One of the foremost things to consider, though, is that the chart of $SPX remains bullish. It continues to trend higher, with all moving averages in sync. The first major support area is at 2300.
Both equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline and thus remain on buy signals.
