By Lawrence G. McMillan
As you certainly recall, after "Frexit," $SPX broke out strongly to the upside gapping up on two consecutive days (something that is quite unusual for a large-cap index). However, since then it has virtually gone nowhere. As $SPX has hunkered down in this tight band, some technical deterioration has appeared.
The equity-only put-call ratios have diverged over the last week or so. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) continues to decline and thus remains on a buy signal, but the standard ratio (Figure 2) is on a sell.
Market breadth is the most bearish of the indicators right now. Both breadth oscillators are now on sell signals. We often want to see another indicator confirming a breadth sell signal, because the breadth signal can be erratic at times. However, the sell signal can't be ignored completely.
Volatility indices remain at very low levels. In fact, on Monday (May 1st) $VIX briefly traded below 10 for the first time since February 2007. I don't like to say that $VIX is "too low," but this is rather extreme. These volatility indices are flirting with levels that have been dangerous for stocks in the past, but only for the short term.
From a longer-term viewpoint, though, $VIX is not a real problem for stocks because $VIX is not in an uptrend.
In summary, the bulls continue to await the upside breakout. However, the bears are still in this game. If $SPX closes below support, a test of the March lows would be in order. So, once again we await confirmation from $SPX before a move can be "certified," and that confirmation has been very difficult to come by since mid-March.
This Market Commentary is an abbreviated version of the commentary featured in The Option Strategist Newsletter.
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